Posts Tagged ‘crosstabs’

PPIC Poll: Why Jerry and Babs Lead Meg and Carly

Wednesday, October 20th, 2010

Propelled by his standing among Democrats, Latinos, women, liberals and especially moderates, Jerry Brown is leading Meg Whitman 44-36% in the latest survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, which also finds Barbara Boxer leading Carly Fiorina 43-38%.

Despite her massive spending – which is expected to reach $180 million – Republican Whitman has been unable to break away from Democrat Brown except among Republicans, conservatives and Southern Californians outside of Los Angeles.

Among independents – a group Team Whitman has identified as crucial to their final game plan – the race is essentially tied, with Whitman up only 37-36%, according to PPIC. Men, whites and voters in the Central Valley – demographics essential to a Republican candidate – also are evenly divided, while Brown is crushing Whitman in Los Angeles (54-28%) and the San Francisco Bay Area (55-29%).

Brown’s strong lead appears in some considerable part to be due to his appeal to middle-of-the-road voters – moderates – as distinct from independents, according to a crosstab PPIC created at the request of Calbuzz. Brown, of course, leads among liberals 82-4% and Whitman commands conservatives 63-15%. But among the large swath of voters in the middle – however they are registered to vote – Brown leads 51-29%.

The findings are based on a turnout model – derived from questions probing respondents’ likliness to vote — that includes 44% Democrats, 35% Republicans and 19% independents. The 9-point differential between Democrats and Republicans is 4 points lower than the official difference by party registration. That takes into account the “enthusiasm gap” many pollsters find during the election season.

But if Republicans turn out in vastly higher numbers and Democrats don’t, the race could certainly be closer than PPIC suggests. On the other hand, the survey only includes 49% women, which is likely 2-4 percent too low — which would advantage Brown and Boxer.

While Brown leads Whitman on voters’ beliefs about who would do a better job on education, environment and immigration, Whitman leads on two of the most compelling issues – jobs and the economy, and state budget and taxes. But PPIC did not ask questions about character or qualifications – two concerns the Brown campaign believe precede voters’ views about issues.

The data make it clear why, in the closing days of the campaign, Whitman continues to hammer on Brown’s record on  jobs, taxes, the death penalty and pensions, while Brown is emphasizing Whitman’s truthfulness, experience, self-interest and integrity.

While just half the Democrats say they are satisfied with their choices of candidates in the governor’s race and 46% say they’re not satisfied, only 38% of Republicans are satisfied compared to 58% who are not satisfied.

Satisfaction doesn’t seem to be preventing either Brown or Whitman from consolidating their party base: Brown has 76% of the Democrats and Whitman has 73% of the Republicans. But given that Whitman has spent so lavishly – explaining that she must do this because Brown is so well-known and the unions are funding him to the hilt – it is astonishing that nearly six in 10 Republicans are not happy with their choice.

The relatively large number of undecided voters — 16% — is at least partly a function of PPIC’s polling technique: they do not ask undecided voters for whom they are leaning, a question that many pollsters use to better simulate a final vote.

In the race for  U.S. Senate, Boxer commands Democrats, Women, Latinos, liberals and – importantly – moderates. She also kills Republican Fiorina in Los Angeles and the Bay Area.

But Fiorina is closer to Boxer than Whitman is to Brown because she is not only ahead among Republicans, conservatives and voters in Southern California outside of LA, she also leads Boxer among men, whites and voters in the Central Valley. Only independents are a wash.

According to the special Calbuzz crosstab, Boxer has the liberals 81-4% and Fiorina has the conservatives 69-13%. But moderates are tilting 51-24% for Boxer – which explains why Boxer is emphasizing Fiorina’s very conservative views on abortion, offshore oil drilling, environment and other issues that cast her GOP opponent outside of the California mainstream.

Voters are more satisfied with their choices for Senate than they are their choices for governor: Democrats are satisfied 67-27%, Republicans are OK with their choice 61-34% and independents say they’re satisfied by 51-41%.

None of the propositions PPIC tested appear in great shape: Prop. 19, to legalize marijuana, is trailing 44-49%; Prop. 23, to overturn the state’s greenhouse gas controls, is losing 37-48%; Prop. 24, to repeal a law giving business a tax break, is behind 31-38%, with 31% undecided; and Prop. 25, to lower the threshold to pass a budget to a majority, is leading just 49-34%.

PPIC surveyed 1,802 adults by landline and 200 by cell phone, Oct. 10-17. Included in the sample were 1,067 respondents identified as likely voters, for whom the margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. (The cell phone interviews, however, included were with adults who have both cell phone and landline service, not just those who have a cell phone only – a demographically distinct, and more Democrat-leaning, group. PPIC informs us that at most 103 respondents in their total sample have a cell phone only. We don’t know how many CPOs were in their likely voter sample.)

PS: We note with some disgust that the Wall Street Journal broke PPIC’s embargo on this survey. We’re not sure where they got the numbers but they may have figured them out from the Brown campaign’s 1:30 pm conference call when the survey was discussed. Calbuzz, however, has played by the rules.

Meg’s Trouble With Women, Jerry’s With Youth

Monday, January 25th, 2010

Your faithful Calbuzz datasluts couldn’t wait to mine last week’s Field Poll crosstabs for the governor’s race, so we could tell you about nuggets like:

While Jerry Brown is beating Meg Whitman 44-32% overall, he’s ahead 48-33% among women who give eMeg a pathetic favorable rating of 19-20%.

Facing numbers like that, Meg’s multi-million-dollar consulting corps must be scrambling to figure out how in the world they can sell their candidate to women voters.

On the other hand, we already noted that eMeg is crushing Commish Steve Poizner in favorability among Republicans – she’s at 34-8% positive and he’s gasping at 18-19%. Down in the crosstabs, however, we find that the former eBay CEO is killing the Insurance Commissioner among the conservative GOP primary voters Poizner is trying to capture by 45-15% and among what Field called “tea party enthusiasts” by 51-12%.

So excuse us if we pay a bit more attention at this stage of the race to a Brown-Whitman match-up than to a Brown-Poizner contest. Which leads us to the fact that although  Brown’s overall favorable rating overall is 44-32% positive, among people most likely to actually vote in November – those age 50 and older – his favorable is 51-34%.

However, the Attorney General’s favorable among those under 50 is just 36-29% and among those under 30 — who can’t even remember when he was governor — it’s just 24-17%. Six in 10 younger voters have no opinion about him.

The good news in this for Crusty the General is that our best estimate – from pollsters we trust – is that about six in 10 voters in November are likely to be 50 and older.

The bad news for Brown is that no matter who emerges as his Republican opponent -– and at this point it sure looks like eMeg with her unlimited self-funded campaign budget — Brown can expect to get hammered on TV starting in about March with ads aimed at younger voters portraying him as old news, over-the-hill status quo.

“Jerry Brown and his entrenched allies will be spending millions to defend failure and the status quo in Sacramento, and Meg is committed to defeating them,” Whitman mouthpiece Sarah Pompei told Contra Costa Timesman Steve Harmon last week, limbering up for some serious trash talk.

And even if, as we hear, Brown’s got $12.5 million in the bank (some of which is restricted for the general election), he’s not likely to have enough to strike back with much force -– at least not in paid media. Which means he’d better have some nifty op-research up his sleeve and hope it’s strong enough to put eMeg on the defensive.

There is an opening for the AG there: Meg’s favorable is just 25-20% overall, so 65% of the voters don’t even have an opinion about her yet. And though she’s doing better in Southern California and the Central Valley, in her own Bay Area back yard her favorable is a negative 27-30%.

Brown’s goal right now is to pre-frame the onslaught against him as an attack by the silk-stockinged, white-gloved, greedy, corporate bastards against his Little Guy Campaign, to wit, his uberpopulist comment last week on KGO radio:

“Her whole theory is that she can buy the mind of California and whoever fights her will be so small, compared to the amount of money that she’s gathered up on Wall Street, that she will pulverize any opposition through the paid takeover of the airwaves of California.”

We noted last week that Brown is beating Whitman 71-15% among Democrats and – importantly – 47-25% among independents, while Meg leads 69-13% among Republicans.

GOP Primary and General Election Match-Ups

But in the crosstabs we also find that while Brown kills Whitman 81-8% among liberals, and Whitman wins handily at 66-18% among conservatives, it’s Jerry who’s got the self-identified “middle of the road” voters at this point, by 47-30%. They represent 46% of the likely voters in the Field Poll’s November projection.

It’s no surprise that Brown leads 59-33% among union households while Whitman leads 51-40% among those with incomes of $100,000 or more.

Brown and Whitman run almost dead even among white voters at 43-42%, but among Asians and Pacific Islanders Brown leads 39-19%, among Latino’s he’s ahead 52-29% and among blacks the AG is ahead 76-7%.

Calbuzz Bottom Line: To get in the game, the Commish  is going to have to go negative on eMeg with something that rings true and can peel away conservatives, otherwise, he’s dead in the water.  As long as Poiz remains irrelevant, eMeg has to boost her status among women and begin to create a Jerry-as-aged-incumbent narrative. Crusty needs to hold the women and independents, make a positive impression on younger voters and prepare for the negative attacks about to come.