PPIC Poll: Santorum Moves Up on Romney in CA
Rick Santorum has moved to within striking distance of Mitt Romney in California’s June presidential primary with its cache of 172 delegates, according to the latest survey from the Public Policy Institute of California.
Romney now draws 28% of likely Republican voters, compared to Santorum at 22%, a spread PPIC characterized as within the margin of error for Republican likely voters.
Santorum had the support of just 4% in December and 11% in January. Romney, on the other hand, had 25% in December and 37% in January. So the latest finding represents a 9-point decline for the former Massachusetts governor in three months, compared to an 11-point increase for the former Pennsylvania senator.
The survey also found New Gingrich at 17% and Ron Paul at 8%.
While the outcome of the GOP primary might be in flux, California remains predictably blue in the general election. According to PPIC, President Barack Obama leads the Republican candidate (individuals were not tested) 53-37% among likely voters — about the same as Obama’s 50-38% lead in December.
Obama carries 83% of Democrats, 88% of liberals and 70% of Latinos while 78% of Republicans, and 69% of conservatives would support the GOP nominee. Obama also wins the crucial middle of the electorate: independents 58-25% and moderates 56-27%.
PPIC surveyed 2,001 California adults Feb. 21-28, including 1,334 registered voters, 859 likely voters and 281 Republican primary likely voters. The margin of error among likely voters was ±4.2 percentage points and among Republicans it was ±7.4 percentage points.
A Field Poll Feb. 11-18 found Romney leading Santorum 31-25%, down from results earlier in the month when Field found Romney leading Santorum 38-18%.
Gee, do you suppose … could it be? Could California matter?
Why do you suppose the margin of error is so much bigger for Republicans? In a typical election year, I’d have said they’re less likely to change their minds than voters in general. This year is clearly not a typical election year. But that still seems like a big gap. Any explanations? Also, did anybody break out women in any polling? I’d loooove to see how Santorum is doing with that demographic. Granted I tend not to have a lot of meaningful conversations with born-again Christian women. But I do talk to other Republican women. And they appear to be just as disgusted with him as most any woman. I hope somebody checks those figures.
Margin of error in polling is a function of the size of the sample, not the firmness or squishiness of opinion. In very general terms, the larger the sample, the smaller the margin of error (up to a point). PPIC only identified 281 likely Republican voters, so the margin of error for those results is higher.
Ah! Thank you for the explanation. I can’t say I’m surprised they had trouble finding registered Republicans in California. They do appear to be becoming an extinct breed 🙂