36th CD: The Jane, Janice, Debra and Marcy Show
The most interesting thing about the special election race for L.A.’s just-deserted 36th Congressional District seat is that it will be the first high-profile campaign in California to be played out under the new “jungle primary” rules.
Three under-the-radar legislative specials covered by the new, top-two primary system are coming up in the next few weeks, but none will attract even a hint of the widespread state and national interest already focusing on the contest to replace the departing Representative Jane Harman, a hardliner on Israel and national security issues, and the only Blue Dog in L.A.
The top contenders eying a run to replace her array from center to left to far left, all but ensuring one of those “battle for the soul of the Democratic party” deals, as they position themselves to win one of the two spots in the playoffs, in what is likely to be an all-Democrat run-off.
The coastal district became one of the most gerrymandered in the state in the 2000 reapportionment, when the big chunk of Republican voters in the Palos Verdes peninsula got cut out. Democrats now hold a 45.3 to 27.6% edge in registration, and Obama carried it by 30 points in 2008.
Intriguingly, the top-two primary rules make it possible that a Republican could make it into the run-off; they’d get totally clobbered, of course, but the fact that district lines will soon be redrawn by the new and unpredictable citizens reapportionment commission is yet another wild card factor that offers ambitious GOP wannabes a chance to raise their profiles this time out.
“This will be one of those races where (the candidates) are out every night, and every community dog beach association will have a forum,” said one veteran operative not working in the campaign.
Here’s the Calbuzz early line on the players:
Janice Hahn – The L.A. City Council member was Harman’s guest at last month’s State of the Union address; the fact that she announced her candidacy and had endorsements lined up about 12 seconds after Harman publicly made it known she was leaving, leads to the surmise that she’s the favorite of the imperious departing incumbent. But Hahn isn’t much of a fundraiser, as she proved in her losing primary campaign for lieutenant governor against Gavin “Lt. Starbuck” Newsom. She has all the charisma of a rutabaga, but she’ll be the closest thing to a moderate in the race; more importantly, she’s already put together a veteran campaign team including L.A. consultant John Shallman, pollster John Fairbank and redoubtable media strategist Joe Trippi. The incendiary Garry South, an old friend of Hahn’s who ran her campaign for Lite Gov, is whispering backstage as an unpaid adviser.
Debra Bowen – The incumbent Secretary of State was a popular Assembly and state Senate representative of much of the district from the early 1990s until she ran and won her current job in 2006. Termed out in 2014 (she has added incentive to go for Congress because her husband works in Washington) she has some key organizational assets: state Democratic chairman John Burton signaled his approval by putting out a statement noting she was “the only candidate” who had notified the party she was running; the netroots/Calitics crowd just loves her (she quickly put up an “Act Blue” fundraising page) and her strategist is Parke Skelton, a solid pro. Question that she’ll have to answer: Isn’t there something optically askew about a sitting Secretary of State overseeing a special election in which she’s a candidate? Just askin’.
Marcy Winograd – An L.A. teacher and anti-war activist, Winograd challenged Harman in the last two Democratic primaries, winning 41 percent of the vote last year. Her anti-war on terror positions and pro-Palestinian tilt drives many crazy (see: Waxman, Henry) but there’s no denying she’s got a base in the district that makes her a factor in the “top two” system. Winograd recently moved to Santa Monica, about a mile outside the district, which doesn’t really matter much, and so far has played coy about her intentions; she says she wants to ask Bowen some “tough questions” before making up her mind (which we assume will be along the line of, “Do you favor melting down all U.S. military weapons and turning them into windmills?”) but we’ll be surprised if she doesn’t run.
Republicans – For reasons cited above, GOP pols have reason to run for more than just the exercise, and a batch of them are already panting at the prospect. Any Republican would have to be one helluva’ attractive candidate to matter, though, and Mattie Fein, a communications consultant whom Harman smushed last November; Mike Webb, running from that historically great political stepping stone of Redondo Beach city attorney; and (maybe) former Stanford footballer Damon Dunn, last seen wearing a construction helmet at the Republican state convention, for reasons that remain unclear, don’t make the cut.
A final word: Harman has never been one of our favorite people, not least because of her overbearing air of wealthy entitlement, and we can’t help but suspect her think tank deal has been in the works for some time, given that her predecessor announced he was leaving last May. So we agree with Huffpost blogger Richard Grenell that G.I. Jane ought to pay the cost of the damn special election to succeed her. What better way to spend some of Sidney’s zillions?
This is going to be an incredibly interesting race. In the following book of maps, pay attention to the Janice Hahn Lt Gov election results from within CD36. She did well inland, but actually was beaten by the Mayor of San Francisco in a bunch of the most Democratic and highest Turnout precincts in the South Bay.
Check out that map and others at http://redistrictingpartners.com/congressional-district-36
Of course Harman should have pay for the special. Or maybe she should have to stay in Congress. It’s like Palin quitting in the middle of her gube gig. No sense of responsibility.
News from last night: Harman steps down effective Tuesday, so Gov. Brown can set a special primary in April, placing a run-off on the June ballot if necessary.
Now, the article above:
An analysis of last year’s primary and general elections in this district show that, registration notwithstanding, the Republican turnout was only offset by the Democrats north of LAX, which is the only area Winograd ever got any traction in.
All three local districts (53 AD, 28th SD as well as Harman’s CA-36th) trend Republican in the south, especially in off-year and special elections. Remember, Dems may be over-registered,. but Republicans come out in stronger percentages. Look at Butler’s election in November, and watch Lieu’s special election this Tuesday (one exception there, he used to be on Torrance city council.)
This district will only elect a moderate Dem, not an ideologue like Winograd. The issue may come down to Hahn’s more conservative positions on somethings versus Bowen’s greater name recognition (and more liberal stance on some issues) since, as noted, she was the representative of this area for many years.
As for Harman’s leaving, she’s served a long time, and has a strong liberal record on all social issues, from the environment and worker rights to women’s issues and education. yet her party’s leadership treated her like shit when they were in power, and the redistricting commission may make this district disappear in 2012.
PS: Analysis by city and precinct is available from ENSCOM.
cal damage, you give Jane Harman far too much credit. Marcy (my spouse) ran in 2006 because of Harman’s warmongering ways, and her pretense of ignorance on Bush’s illegal wiretapping that she boasted of on Meet the Press in early ’06. Though Jane went to Harvard Law School where rumor has it they teach constitutional law, she claimed not to have figured out that warrantless wiretapping might not be constitutional (or compliant with statutory wiretap law). She actually flogged the NY Times for (belatedly) revealing it, when it should have revealed it when it first learned about it, before the ’04 presidential. She’s always been a corporate”go along to get along” Dem who wanted to play “I’ve got a secret” with the Repubs on the Intel committee. She has never been the enthusiastic supporter of workers’ rights needed in her district, as Marcy has long been and would be in Congress.
And I don’t see how a Republican can prevail in this district, which went for Obama by 30 points, and is 60-40 Dem (it gerrymandered out some of the Repub enclaves in 2000, to make it safe for Harman). All of this is not to say one way or another, what Marcy’s going to do.