Carly’s Gambit, GOP Vote Flow, Loretta’s Handbag
In the path of Hurricane Carly: As the new L.A. Times poll confirmed the Field Poll finding that Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, R-Pleistocene, runs neck and neck with Carly Fiorina in the GOP Senate race, inquiring minds want to know if her strategy of ignoring the guy isn’t a blunder-in-the-making.
Her new site skewering Barbara Boxer for the awful You Tube moment when the Democratic incumbent got all huffy at a public hearing with a high-ranking military officer for addressing her as “Ma’am,” is a smart stroke, keying off the fact that your average voter doesn’t really care all that much for imperious, self-important, high-handed arrogance and condescension in their elected officials.
That said, there’s a lot of anti-Fiorina sentiment simmering out there in the conservative blogosphere, where some of the most passionate, right-wing Republican voters are no doubt drawing their first impressions of iCarly.
The reliably conservative Eric Hogue has a piece up headlined “She’s Carly Fiorina – California’s Scozzafava,’” in honor of the New York state lawmaker purged from the party in the much-watched 23rd congressional district race in that state. The Fiorina-as-RINO frame also is a regular feature at Red State – Hed: “There are two kinds of Republicans” – where Neil Stevens bashes her on an almost daily basis.
John Wildermuth examined the ignore DeVore strategy over at Fox and Hounds, concluding that the huge cash advantage she’s sure to enjoy likely means it won’t matter in the end, despite current polling.
The danger for iCarly, however, is less the long shot possibility that she loses to DeVore, and more that she comes out of the primary without the enthusiasm or backing of the populist wing of the GOP, where all the heat and light is to be found. Running a general election campaign in a primary is a risky business, and the Hurricane’s handlers need to find a way for her to make nice with the tea bag crowd.
GOP Civil War meme II: We’re not really sure what this means, but the LAT poll offers some interesting data on the Republican side of the two statewide primaries; while Fiorina and DeVore run knuckle to knuckle, there’s a huge difference in whom their supporters like for governor.
DeVore voters favor former Congressman Tom Campbell over eMeg Whitman 42-35%, with another 16% for Steve “the Commish” Poizner.
At the same time, Campbell voters in the GOP governor’s race prefer DeVore over Fiorina in the Senate race 42-24%. And the Republicans and Independents supporting Poizner in the governor’s race also tilt for DeVore – 42-36% over Fiorina.
Whitman is leading the governor’s race in the survey, with 35%, but her voters tilt heavily for Fiorina in the Senate race, 38-27% over DeVore.
Which all shakes out like this:
Gov Race Senate Race
Whitman voter –> Fiorina
Campbell voter –> DeVore
Poizner voter –> DeVore
Senate Race Gov Race
Fiorina voter –> Whitman
DeVore voter — > Campbell
Thoughts?
The anybody but Jerry clu
b: Amid all the gab and gossip being slung about another Democrat jumping into the governor’s race against Jerry Brown, this video is required viewing for anyone talking up Rep. Loretta Sanchez as the last, great hope for the party.
For reasons that remain mysterious, Sanchez, D-Disneyland, agreed to empty her purse – and worse for her, to talk about it – for a reporter from Politico. Her bag, she begins, has drawings of “skinny sexy women hanging out having coffee or tea in some café in Europe.”
“Isn’t it cute?” she says. “I love the size of this bag because you can carry anything in it.”
If the gubernatorial bid doesn’t work out, we hear there’s an opening to be Paris Hilton’s new BFF.
At least one guy can count: One part Milton Friedman, one part Diogenes, Tom Campbell is out with an update noting the accuracy of his forecast last summer, when he blew the whistle on the gimmicks and phony assumptions underpinning the “balanced budget” passed by Arnold and his Capitol posse.
With Gov. Schwarzmuscle now auditioning for a remake of “Groundhog Day” as he once again proclaims dire warnings about a looming $14 billion shortfall – I’m shocked! Shocked! – Campbell’s the only guy in the race who’s consistently been both realistic and specific in talking about the budget mess. Too bad he can’t calculate a way to boost the revenue side of his campaign ledger.
Waldo’s Evil Twin: Give it up for Joe Eskenazi and the SF Weekly for their delightful Where’s Gavin meter. You gotta check it out: here.
Today’s sign the end of civilization is near, courtesy of Miss Used To Be California. Update: Ms. Prejean becomes the first person in history to make Larry King look like Mike Wallace.
The decently strong relationship between Campbell voters and DeVore voters at first glance seems to go against the conventional wisdom. Campbell is considered moderate if not the most moderate of the three gubernatorial candidates, and DeVore is supposedly more of a red meat conservative. But, if I may be so bold, maybe this overlap is do to what you might call the “Schwarzenegger effect.” The Republican base is tired of flash and yearns for substance. They feel like they got burned bad by Schwarzenegger and they desperately don’t want another outsider that’s heavy on the rhetoric and light on the policy. In the governor’s race, that gives them Campbell, and in the Senate race, that leaves them with DeVore.
That’s a pretty smart theory, we think. “No more celebrity candidates. Give us a regular Republican.” Could be a sentiment that Whitman and Fiorina will have to overcome.
This type of analysis is an example of the bizarre fixation political analysts and commentators have with anything numerical, especially at early stages of campaigns, when the data are mostly irrelevant to the election outcome.
Polling data, fund raising data, even the number of endorsements get reported as exaggerated bellwether’s of a campaign’s progress. For example, few voters even know who Fiorina is, and a far smaller number (probably zero) are developing their early gubernatorial leanings based on some important connection between the two races.
Yes there may be a slight gender gap in most years, yes there may be pro- or anti-incumbent tendencies from cycle to cycle , yes there might even be some northern CA versus southern CA tendencies, but it’s all de minimus. Probably 90% of what will determine the electoral outcomes has yet to happen, and those who seek to predict it from the few tea leaves available should probably stick to the lottery.
Today’s story takes the usual hyperventilation over numbers to new extremes, implying that these statewide candidates have “blocks” of like-minded voters who are looking at other races through a common lens.
I’m sure that the one thing you won’t hear after the 2010 primary is “well Devore just didn’t pull enough of those Campbell voters and Whitman seemed to lose touch with her Fiorina base.”
Nice analysis of the analysis. You hit the nail on the head, and you used a hammer to do it!
The Carly campaign is making two significant miscalculations.
First, she thinks this is a popularity contest where she can pose like an ingenue. Second, they don’t understand the civil war within the GOP. The crazies are mobilized and the battle lines drawn–ideological purity and adherernce to orthodoxy vs. RINO.
Curtains for Carly. In fact, i would wager that once the above becomes more clear and their money doesn’t materialize like they thought–Carly will bail out citing her battle with cancer.
So what if she likes her purse and keeps a lot of useful things in there? If this were a campaign ad, yeah, it’d be ridiculous. But as a “slice of life” piece, it’s fine. Why the criticism of something light like this?
Who said anything critical?
It critizes itself.
pjh wrote, “If the gubernatorial bid doesn’t work out, we hear there’s an opening to be Paris Hilton’s new BFF.”
That’s not critical? Lemme see, where’s that letter from Nigeria?
Gentlemen: Did you watch the video? This woman carries more nail files, nail polish, lipstick, gloss and hair implements than a high school cheerleader. Paris Hilton would be proud to have her as a friend. But Governor of CA? I don’t think that’s going to happen. I’m sure she’ll appreciate you defending her though and she’ll probably send you one of her special Christmas cards as a thank you.
I think the only thing that will matter is who votes in June…the hard right side of the Republican Party will control the primary and that’s bad news for Carly. It’s not as bad for Whitman.
Fiorina has a much different challenge that the Constitutional candidates have: she must show that she can and will challenge the Obama agenda, but that she can and will separate from the GOP when it is in California’s interest. The fact that the current flock of GOP Senators is in complete lockstep makes it all the more important that Fiorina shows a willingness on some issue of importance to work with Obama.
Obama beat McCain in California by 24 points. That would have been much higher except that the entire Obama GOTV here in California was directed to New Mexico, Nevada, and Missouri. If Fiorina wants to run as the anti-Obama candidate, she’s going to be crushed.
However, if she shows any sign of moderation prior to June, she could be beaten by De Vore. She’s in a dicey situation.