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Posts Tagged ‘LA Times Poll’



Carly’s Gambit, GOP Vote Flow, Loretta’s Handbag

Thursday, November 12th, 2009

carlyleftIn the path of Hurricane Carly: As the new L.A. Times poll confirmed the Field Poll finding that Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, R-Pleistocene, runs neck and neck with Carly Fiorina in the GOP Senate race, inquiring minds want to know if her strategy of ignoring the guy isn’t a blunder-in-the-making.

Her new site skewering Barbara Boxer for the awful You Tube moment when the Democratic incumbent got all huffy at a public hearing with a high-ranking military officer for addressing her as “Ma’am,” is a smart stroke, keying off the fact that your average voter doesn’t really care all that much for imperious, self-important, high-handed arrogance and condescension in their elected officials.

That said, there’s a lot of anti-Fiorina sentiment simmering out there in the conservative blogosphere, where some of the most passionate, right-wing  Republican voters are no doubt drawing their first impressions of iCarly.

The reliably conservative Eric Hogue has a piece up headlined “She’s Carly Fiorina – California’s Scozzafava,’” in honor of the New York state lawmaker purged from the party in the much-watched 23rd congressional district race in that state.  The Fiorina-as-RINO frame also is a regular feature at Red State - Hed: “There are two kinds of Republicans” – where Neil Stevens bashes her on an almost daily basis.

John Wildermuth examined the ignore DeVore strategy over at Fox and Hounds, concluding that the huge cash advantage she’s sure to enjoy likely means it won’t matter in the end, despite current polling.

The danger for iCarly, however, is less the long shot possibility that she loses to DeVore, and more that she comes out of the primary without the enthusiasm or backing of the populist wing of the GOP, where all the heat and light is to be found. Running a general election campaign in a primary is a risky business, and the Hurricane’s handlers need to find a way for her to make nice with the tea bag crowd.

GOP Civil War meme II: We’re not really sure what this means, but the LAT poll offers some interesting data on the Republican side of the two statewide primaries; while Fiorina and DeVore run knuckle to knuckle, there’s a huge difference in whom their supporters like for governor.

DeVore voters favor former Congressman Tom Campbell over eMeg Whitman 42-35%, with another 16% for Steve “the Commish” Poizner.

At the same time, Campbell voters in the GOP governor’s race prefer DeVore over Fiorina in the Senate race 42-24%. And the Republicans and Independents supporting Poizner in the governor’s race also tilt for DeVore – 42-36% over Fiorina.

Whitman is leading the governor’s race in the survey, with 35%, but her voters tilt heavily for Fiorina in the Senate race, 38-27% over DeVore.

Which all shakes out like this:

Gov Race                Senate Race
Whitman voter –> Fiorina
Campbell voter –> DeVore
Poizner voter –>     DeVore

Senate Race          Gov Race
Fiorina voter –>   Whitman
DeVore voter — >  Campbell

Thoughts?

The anybody but Jerry clu029-588b: Amid all the gab and gossip being slung about another Democrat jumping into the governor’s race against Jerry Brown, this  video is required viewing for anyone talking up Rep. Loretta Sanchez as the last, great hope for the party.

For reasons that remain mysterious, Sanchez, D-Disneyland, agreed to empty her purse – and worse for her, to talk about it – for a reporter from Politico. Her bag, she begins, has drawings of “skinny sexy women hanging out having coffee or tea in some café in Europe.”

“Isn’t it cute?” she says. “I love the size of this bag because you can carry anything in it.”

If the gubernatorial bid doesn’t work out, we hear there’s an opening to be Paris Hilton’s new BFF.

At least one guy can count: One part Milton Friedman, one part Diogenes, Tom Campbell is out with an update noting the accuracy of his forecast last summer, when he blew the whistle on the gimmicks and phony assumptions underpinning the “balanced budget” passed by Arnold and his Capitol posse.

With Gov. Schwarzmuscle now auditioning for a remake of “Groundhog Day” as he once again proclaims dire warnings about a looming $14 billion shortfall – I’m shocked! Shocked! – Campbell’s the only guy in the race who’s consistently been both realistic and specific in talking about the budget mess. Too bad he can’t calculate a way to boost the revenue side of his campaign ledger.031-631

Waldo’s Evil Twin: Give it up for Joe Eskenazi and the SF Weekly for their delightful Where’s Gavin meter. You gotta check it out: here.

Today’s sign the end of civilization is near, courtesy of Miss Used To Be California. Update: Ms. Prejean becomes the first person in history to make Larry King look like Mike Wallace.

Why It’s Nuts for Dems to Want a Primary Fight

Monday, November 9th, 2009

jerrydianneAfter San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom dropped out of the Democratic race for governor, leaving Attorney General Jerry Brown as the only (still-unannounced) candidate for the nomination, some folks on the left and others in the party immediately started complaining that an uncontested race would hurt their cause.

“A contested primary will only make Brown a stronger candidate should he indeed win that primary — and more importantly, it would give Democrats and DTS voters a chance to weigh in on the future of California, to have a real discussion about how to fix a broken state,” wrote the normally level-headed Robert Cruickshank over at Calitics.

“If Brown faced a more progressive challenger, he would have to clarify his positions on key issues facing the state, instead of keeping them under wraps until August 2010. A primary battle will help him keep not just his name, but his vision before the voters of California,” wrote the Oracle of Cruickshank.

Our pal Steve Maviglio at from California Majority Report, stoked the issue, writing in Capitol Morning Report, that “over the weekend, there’s already been some noise in Democratic circles about possible challengers and murmurs of an Anybody-But-Jerry movement that could prevent a Brown coronation next June.”

Former Chronsman John Wildermuth and current Chron pol writer Carla Marinucci both wrote stories trying to drum up some interest in a new candidate (and a spicier story). Of course, all the names dropped into the mix – Bob Hertzberg, Jane Harman, Loretta Sanchez, Maria Shriver, John Doerr, Antonio Villaraigosa, yada yada yada – were nothing more than crapchurn.

Our friend Harold Meyerson, a very bright guy, got himself swept away worrying that a free shot for Crusty the General would be a black mark on California’s political systejm, ferchrissake.

And the ByGodLATimes and some very smart poli sci profs at USC are so hot for a contest, that when Prince Gavin dropped out of the race half-way through their six-day poll, they cooked up a wildly loaded question to prove that Democratic voters aren’t satisfied with Brown as their candidate.

As you may have heard, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom dropped out of the race to become the Democratic candidate for governor on Friday, leaving former Governor Jerry Brown as the only major political figure seeking the Democratic nomination. Are you satisfied with Brown as the only major figure seeking the nomination or do you think it is important for Democratic voters to have additional choices in who to nominate to be the Democratic candidate for governor?

Note the “only major political figure,” followed by “only major figure” followed by “additional choices.” With the question worded that way, it’s astonishing that about a third of the Democratic primary voters said they were satisfied while only 65% said it’s important to have more choices.  Democrats always want more choices. Who’s gonna be against more choices when Jerry Brown is the ONLY major political figure seeking the nomination?

At the same time, as Dan Schnur at USC noted Sunday, it is true that Crusty the General’s favorable is about 64% among Democrats. So it’s not as if they don’t like the guy – especially the older voters who are likely to participate in the 2010 primary.

Truth is, the only person who could realistically get into the race right now would be U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein Herself. And although Former Assembly Ayatollah and SF Mayor Willie Brown is frantically pushing Difi, all good Calbuzz readers know that’s not gonna happen.

Now while Calbuzz has no horse in the race,  on either side, and though we’d dearly love a Dem horse race to write about, we do have a penetrating analytical question to ask those Democrats who want a competitive primary: “Are you out of your friggin’ minds?”

You have the ideal situation right now, tactically and strategically, and you want to screw it up? What are you – Democrats?

petewilsonConsider Exhibit A – 1990 — when U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson was begged by California Republicans to come back and run for governor because they were convinced there was nobody at home who could beat then S.F. Mayor Dianne Feinstein or Attorney General John Van de Kamp..

Wilson stepped into the breach, with no need to run a primary campaign. “It allowed us to position Pete for general election—pro-choice, anti-offshore drilling—two incredibly important symbols of moderation, AND we were able to hold our resources and our fire for DiFi in June, with an entire campaign planned from June to November,” recalled Don Sipple, Wilson’s media strategist.

“If you will recall, it was an off year with GOP controlling White House and we had to buck headwinds at the end,” Sipple remembered. “All of the advantages cited above came into play in order for Pete to squeak out a close win in a tough campaign.”

Ben Tulchin of San Francisco, our Democratic pollster pal who had been keeping a close eye on Newsom’s potential but who had no candidate in the race, agreed: “Jerry Brown needs to save as much money as he can for the general. He’s going to need it because he’s likely going to be facing a billionaire.”

It’s a no-brainer, really: Why would Brown want to be pulled to the left on gay marriage, driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants,  taxes, or whatever? Why would he want to have to kiss ass for the CCPOA, CTA or any other labor union that would extract promises in exchange for money and volunteers? Would he rather spend $10 million in a battle for the nomination or have a pile of cash on hand to go after his GOP rival the day after the election – like Wilson did to Feinstein in 1990? We’re pretty sure we know how media strategist and Brown adviser Joe Trippi would vote on that one.

As Tulchin wrote in a Chronicle op-ed: “Brown and California Democrats can now sit on the sidelines and watch the Republicans beat each other up in what will likely be a nasty and divisive primary fight between well-funded candidates who will spend millions of dollars attacking each other and leaving them in a weaker position for the general election.”

Having run statewide in California for secretary of state, governor, senator, attorney general and president, it’s not as if Brown is a newcomer in the political process. “Even more important,” Willie Brown told us, “He is not a newcomer to the thought process of government.”

But progressives like the Oracle of Cruickshank aren’t convinced. “A contested Democratic gubernatorial primary is essential to not only a strong Democratic campaign in the fall of 2010, but more importantly, to rebuilding the shattered ruins of a once-golden state,” Cruickshank wrote.

To which Jerry Brown replied the other day: “Do you know how many primaries I’ve been through?”

P.S. While the question about more choice in the Democratic primary was bogus, Calbuzz applauds the LA Times and USC for putting together the cash for a series of polls in this political season. With the demise of the LA Times Poll and the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State (which at least half of us worked on), there are too few quality public polls in California beyond the Field Poll and PPIC.  Here’s the link to the current LAT/USC effort. One note to LAT/USC: You need to clear up how your sampling was done. Your methodology story suggests it was a random sample with weighting at the back end. But on the conference call you said it was a cluster sample, which would normally obviate weighting.

Brown, Newsom React to Tony V’s Pullout

Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

tonycnnAfter LA Mayor Tony V told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer he won’t be running for governor in 2010, Calbuzz put in calls to Attorney General Jerry Brown and San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom.

Brown talked to us; Newsom wouldn’t.

“What do you think about it being a two-man race for the Democratic nomination?” we asked General Jerry, following up on our prescient Monday post on the race.

“I think it’s a one-man race,” Brown quipped. “I haven’t gotten in yet.”

Right.

“When a guy leaves, I don’t like to jump too quickly,” Brown said. “I’m not in any hurry to make an announcement. (As attorney general) I have a lot of good lawsuits teed up to go after some serious scoundrels.”jerryok

Pressed for his political analysis, however, Brown offered this: “I have a strong base in LA and a strong base among Latinos. Among younger people, I have some work to do. But so does everybody because they’re not as attached to the political process.”

From Newsom, joining the Meg Whitman school of duck and cover communications, all we got was a cheesy press release. It  assiduously avoided anything political, or even vaguely interesting, unless you count Prince Gavin’s genteel collegiality toward his fellow mayor — whom his consultants had been carving up like a roast turkey in private until Monday.

gavinmicrophone“His leadership is valuable to the people of California and the nation, regardless of the office he chooses to hold,” Newsom said of Villaraigosa. “His life story is an inspiration to millions of Californians and especially to Latinos everywhere.”

“As Mayor Villaraigosa has said so eloquently recently, state government needs to change and I believe we can work together to make that a reality,” Newsom added.

Yadayadayada.

Of course, Newsom’s camp has argued for some time that a one-on-one race with Brown helps them because they can fight a full-on generational campaign that will seek to portray the 71-year-old Brown as a doddering, moth-eaten antique compared to the 41-year-old Twitter-hip model of modernity that is Newsom.

Whether Newsom can make Brown look like a geezer, however, is an open question. Brown has a kind of Tony Bennett appeal and he’s always been a cutting-edge — if quirky and chameleon-like — kind of guy.Tony_Bennett

Moreover, polling suggests Brown starts with a broad advantage. The latest J Moore Methods shows him ahead statewide by 43-26% in a two-way match-up; Brown has a 32-14% lead (after Villaraigosa’s 39%) among likely voters in Los Angeles according to the LA Times Poll taken before Antonio bowed out.

That same LA Times Poll showed Newsom ahead of Brown among voters 18-29 by 14-9%. But it showed Brown ahead of Newsom among all other age groups — with the margins increasing among older voters — those most likely to vote in primaries.

Meanwhile, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner got the jump on his GOP rivals Meg Whitman and Tom Campbell — by blasting out a press release reaction to Tony V’s pullout.

126719_poizner_GMK_“The mayor’s announcement today that he will not be a candidate for governor of California doesn’t change the fundamental decision the people will make in the 2010 election: whether to reform California and move forward with innovative policies or stick with a failed status quo.

“While Jerry Brown, as usual, attempts to once again repackage himself and Gavin Newsom presents himself as an entirely new shiny package, the truth of the matter is that at their core both candidates represent the same discredited policies of the past that are dragging our state down.”

You can always count on the Poison Commissioner to get in a gratuitous shot or two.

– By Jerry Roberts and Phil Trounstine