Archive for the ‘Gavin Newsom’ Category



Press Clips: Shane & Snitch Meet Maureen, Mutter

Friday, January 22nd, 2010

Earth to Burton, Earth to Burton: In comments to the By God LA Times, state Demo party chief John Burton joined in the piling on of Martha Coakley, the humiliated-in-defeat candidate who ingloriously kicked away Ted Kennedy’s Democratic seat – but JoBu draws a Calbuzz penalty flag for a bonehead comment in doing so.

Speaking to the redoubtable duo of Evan Halper and Shane Goldmacher, Burton referenced Coakley’s now-infamous mega-gaffe, in which she incomprehensibly referred to legendary former Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling as a “Yankee fan,” freezing in an instant a public image of herself as a suburban matron utterly disconnected from the average concerns of those who follow the Sawx.

Having shot herself in only one foot, she soon finished the job by mocking GOP foe Scott Brown for showing up in the cold to shake hands with hockey fans headed for a Bruins game at Fenway Park on New Year’s Day, at a time when she was, um, on vacation. To wit Burton:

Democratic Party Chairman John Burton said the party’s Senate candidate in Massachusetts, state Atty. Gen. Martha Coakley, was just a bad campaigner.

“Nobody in California that is running for office would take off for a weeklong vacation before the general election after a tough primary, and they probably would be standing out in front of Dodger Stadium or Candlestick Park shaking hands,” he said, alluding to one of Coakley’s widely cited gaffes involving the Boston Red Sox baseball team.

Memo to John: Baseball was last played at Candlestick Park on Sept. 30, 1999, when the dog-ass Dodgers hammered the hometown lads, 9-4. The Giants’ current facility, formerly known as PacBell Park, is now called ATT Park. We’re pretty sure you’ve been there, John, and just don’t remember. Time for your nappy, now.

Red Sox Nation: Amid the millions of trees sacrificed to the cause of explaining the victory of Republican Brown in Massachusetts, the Schilling incident stands out as the single most salient factor in the whole over-analyzed mess. Those inclined to more conventional, if not profound, analysis are directed to this swell four byline tic toc.

For our money though, Lisa Swan at The Faster Times nailed it in a well-reported take on how the Schilling Scandal became Coakley’s Snoopy-in-the-Tank defining moment, which included these comments from Schilling himself:

“It does reflect on an elected official’s relationship with her constituents. I don’t think that somebody who’s lived here their whole life, not understanding the importance of the prominence of the sports teams in this city, it’s a big deal to people,” he said.

“I think it’s another sign of her aloofness, and just the fact that she’s very out of touch, I think, with the people.”

(eMeg memo to staff: Why am I still waiting for that Power Point on the rosters of the Fresno Grizzlies and the Modesto Nuts?!?)

Heathcliff of San Francisco: Maureen Dowd’s kissy-poo column on SF Mayor Gavin Newsom stirred up a lot of cross-chatter about whether or not Prince Gavin had announced to MoDo his impending retirement from politics. Before we even get to that, though, one quick read of Dowd’s piece is all you need to know about why the Prince just couldn’t cut it in a tough, statewide race.

Self-important, self-regarding, self-absorbed and self-pitying, Newsom stops just short of taking to his fainting couch to comfort his sensitive soul from the cruel blows of an unfair world:

“I mean, oh, God,” he said, sipping green tea in his elegant office. “In a couple of years, you’ll see me as the clerk of a wine store.”

Oh, perish the thought. The overweening arrogance, condescension and utter contempt for working people found in that single sentence, and throughout the interview – “I mean, oh, God! ” – is difficult to overstate.

This is a guy who got carried by rich friends to some early success and now thinks the world owes him a ride in a sedan chair, an over-gelled poseur who screwed his best friend’s wife and now wants everyone to feel sorry for him cuz he didn’t have the stones to stick with a campaign he had no business starting in the first place.

We’re just sayin.’

As for the speculation that Newsom is getting out of politics:

“This is it. God bless. It was fun while it lasted,” he said of his career, with a rueful smile. “Guys like me don’t necessarily progress very far, which is fine.”

Yuck.  SF Weekly’s resourceful “Snitch” blog quickly squeezed a damage control quote out of Newsom’s mouthpiece, who insisted that, oh no, the Great Man is in it on behalf of the Little People for the long haul.

He was speaking tongue-in-cheek…He intends to have a very active career in public service after he completes his second term as mayor. … His point when he says things like that is that he isn’t dependent on politics in the next election, that he can stand on principle and doesn’t feel a need to compromise his beliefs. (Is it just us, or does that not dependent on politics claptrap remind you of Sarah Palin?)

The Chronicle once again dispatched the reliable Heather Knight, who got stuck cleaning up the mess the last time Newsom summoned a reporter for a national publication to share his thoughts on retirement. In a piece featuring exactly the same hed - “Newsom discusses his future” – she churned out a nice, all-you-need-to-know, 26-word lede:

Nobody seems to know what the future holds for Mayor Gavin Newsom after he’s termed out of office in January 2012 – least of all Newsom himself.

Calbuzz sez: Don’t let the door hit you in the ass, pal.

Must read of the week: In a piece fraught with significance for Bay Area news types, media analyst and occasional Calbuzzer Alan Mutter dissects the pending bankruptcy of Dean Singleton’s MediaNews empire.

Among other things, Mutter’s piece offers new evidence of Hearst Corp.’s blundering since its ill-fated acquisition of the long-lost Old Chron in 2000.

After plowing well over $1 billion into a decade-long effort to salvage its ill-starred purchase of the San Francisco Chronicle, the Hearst Corp. now stands to lose another $317 million in the upcoming bankruptcy of MediaNews Group.

Hearst improbably put money into MediaNews, its direct competitor in northern California, in the hopes of reversing the almost continuous loses it has suffered since stepping up to buy the Chronicle in 2000. Instead of fixing the long-festering problem, Hearst became not just the biggest loser among the equity investors in MediaNews. It will be the only one.

The other big news from Fifth and Mish this week: its new, modified limited hangout print wall plan to keep some of their best stuff – like the Sunday Matier and Ross column – off the web until after the paper is printed, a head-in-the-sand idea if there ever was one, as the Oracle of Cruickshank made perfectly clear.

Just breathe into the bag: Our pal Steve Maviglio is usually pretty well-informed, which is why we made a couple calls about his post suggesting that the Coakley debacle will somehow trigger DiFi’s entry into the California governor’s race.

All but picking out the campaign signs and bumper strips for Herself, Maviglio spun his scenario deep into the heavens, going so far as to suggest a reprise of Feinstein’s 1992 Thelma and Louise act with Barbara Boxer.

Sorry man, it ain’t happening.

Scoop of the week: Nice work by Greg Lucas of California’s Capitol in scoring a copy of the internal Power Point presentation being used to try to reach agreement on a package of government reforms among the members of the two-house Special Committee on Fixing Everything in Sacramento in a Jiffy. Lucas reports:

A hearing of the Senate and Assembly Select Committees on Improving State Government to discuss the proposals was canceled January 19, apparently because of a lack of agreement over items on the list.

Howz that whole consensus thing workin’ for ya?

Fishwrap: Poll-pourri, Scofflaw Sarah, Prince’s Pay

Friday, December 18th, 2009

schnurhitherWhen our old friend Dan Schnur outlined results of the USC-LA Times poll last month, he made a special point of noting that Democrats are not all that happy that their only choice in the governor’s race is Attorney General Jerry Brown.

In a conference call about the poll, the ex-Pete Wilson mouthpiece and Republican strategist who now directs the Unruh Institute of Politics, said he knew this because the pollsters inserted the following question while they were still in the field after SF Mayor Gavin Newsom dropped out of the race:

As you may have heard, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom dropped out of the race to become the Democratic candidate for governor on Friday, leaving former Governor Jerry Brown as the only major political figure seeking the Democratic nomination. Are you satisfied with Brown as the only major figure seeking the nomination or do you think it is important for Democratic voters to have additional choices in who to nominate to be the Democratic candidate for governor?

As Calbuzz noted at the time, this was a loaded, partisan question. Given the wording, we were surprised that about a third of Democratic primary voters said they were satisfied while only 65% said it’s important to have more choices. It was hard to believe that Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies – the prominent Democratic and Republican firms hired to do the survey – could have allowed such a dog-ass question.

But LMAO: Now comes PPIC’s new poll with this question – for all respondents:

In general, would you say you are satisfied or not satisfied with your choices of candidates in the primary election for governor next June?

And guess who’s the least satisfied? Schnur’s fellow Republicans.

Democrats: 38% satisfied and 41% not satisfied – 3% net not satisfied.
Republicans:  25% satisfied and 43% not satisfied – 18% net not satisfied.
Independents: 29% satisfied and 45% not satisfied – 16% net not satisfied.

You can’t always get what you waaaaaant . . .

And another thing: Just between us, Dan, what’s with the come hither promo photo? We’re just sayin’.

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Next time you’ll get the buzz cut: Our Arthur Godfrey Memorial National Talent Scout Team went far afield for this week’s winner of the coveted Investigative Punditry award, which goes to Paul Rolly of the Salt Lake Tribune, for his piece telling the story of a local hairdresser who got royally screwed over by the loathsome Sarah Palin.

Rolly scored an interview with one Rhonda Halliday, proprietor of the widely-known Images Hair Studio and Day Spa, who got an early morning call from a friend helping out the purse holders in the entourage of Palin, who was breezing through SLC for a book signing.

Come at once, Halliday was told, Sarah needs her hair done, and pronto.

Dumping a scheduled trip to the dentist with her 3-year old, she hustled to the Monaco Hotel, where she parked her car with the valet, as instructed,  then ran up to work on the Great Woman’s tresses – after being told “Don’t talk to her unless she talks first.”

Then the Palin party left to get to the book signing at Costco on time. Halliday was the last one out of the room because she had to put her equipment away, then watched as they all drove off without anyone mentioning payment or a tip, which is common when the hairdresser travels to the client for the appointment.

When the valet attendant got her car, he said that would be $10. She said she was with the Palin party and assumed they would take care of parking. That was news to him, so she had to fork over the $10.

Hockey mom, indeed.

Speaking of the stupidity of Sarah Palin, thanks to Cenk Uygur for “The Irrefutable Stupidity of Sarah Palin,” where he pointed to Sled Dog Sarah’s recent interview with Bill O’Reilly in which the Big Fella asked her is she’s “smart enough” to be president and got this astonishing response:

I believe that I am because I have common sense and I have I believe the values that I think are reflective of so many other American values, and I believe that what Americans are seeking is not the elitism, the um, the ah, a kind of spineless spinelessness that perhaps is made up for that with some kind of elite, Ivy League education and, and a fat resume that is based on anything but hard work and private sector, free enterprise principles. Americans are could be seeking something like that in a positive change in their leadership, I’m not saying that that has to be me.”

There were no injuries.

BTW:  If you don’t want to support Palin by purchasing her “Going Rogue: An American Life,” you could consider buying a copy of “Going Rouge: An American Nightmare” (did you catch that in the photo above?), the work of Richard Kim and Betsy Reed, editors at the progressive magazine The Nation.

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No wonder he’s unbearably conceited: Underscoring the Rolly Rule that all good columnists are first of all great reporters, the Chron’s joined-at-the-hip boys, Phil Matier and Andy Ross, rolled out some jaw-dropping factoids in their Monday piece that deserve a second look.

Seems that Gavin Newsom, erstwhile candidate for governor and current pouty mayor of San Francisco, would have taken a 30% pay cut had he succeeded in his misguided attempt to be elected California’s chief executive: Amazing but true, Prince Gavin makes $246,464 as Baghdad by the Bay’s Alcalde, compared to the $173,987 salary that Gov. Schwarzmuscle doesn’t take each year.

And his snout’s not alone in the trough, not by a long shot, according to M&R: S.F. District Attorney Kamala Harris, for example, faces a $76,212 slash in her $227,339 salary should she be elected attorney general. Lucky for the little people,  she takes a noblesse oblige view of things: “If I had gone into law to make money, I wouldn’t be here in the first place.”

kamalaharrisFortunately for Harris, she may not have to struggle to make ends meet on the AG’s pay, once her rivals get around to making Alexander Izaguirre a household name.

As reported  by the LAT’s Michael Finnegan, Izaguirre was among an unknown number of illegal immigrant felons that Harris’s office diverted into a much-ballyhooed jobs program as an alternative to prison;  while so enrolled he was busted on multiple felony charges in a vehicular assault case, in which 29-year old Amanda Kiefer was mugged by Izaguirre, then suffered a fractured skull after he jumped into the passenger seat of a car driven by an associate, who ran her down.

“If they’ve committed crimes and they’re not citizens, then why are they here,” Kiefer later told Finnegan. “Why haven’t they been deported?” Two questions we expect campaign consultants for the numerous foes of Let Them Cake Kamala are mulling with great interest.

Three Dot Lounge: Calbuzz welcomes to the blogosphere Bill Whalen, former Pete Wilson speech writer, who’s just launched Politi-Cal. Here’s hoping that Whalen, who hangs out at the Hoover Institution, where Wilson is also encamped, doesn’t turn sock puppet for Pedro protégé eMeg Whitman…046-510

Nice work by Josh Richman of the Coco Times  and Andrew McIntosh of the B-  for penetrating the mysteries of Steve Poizner’s personal wealth and sundry  political contributions…

Must read of the week: A terrific situationer on the state of state Republicans by Washpostman Michael Leahy, who used the controversial recall of GOP Assemblyman Anthony Adams as an entry point.

Today’s sign the end of civilization is near: Sarah Palin meets Miss Teen South Carolina.

Why It’s Nuts for Dems to Want a Primary Fight

Monday, November 9th, 2009

jerrydianneAfter San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom dropped out of the Democratic race for governor, leaving Attorney General Jerry Brown as the only (still-unannounced) candidate for the nomination, some folks on the left and others in the party immediately started complaining that an uncontested race would hurt their cause.

“A contested primary will only make Brown a stronger candidate should he indeed win that primary — and more importantly, it would give Democrats and DTS voters a chance to weigh in on the future of California, to have a real discussion about how to fix a broken state,” wrote the normally level-headed Robert Cruickshank over at Calitics.

“If Brown faced a more progressive challenger, he would have to clarify his positions on key issues facing the state, instead of keeping them under wraps until August 2010. A primary battle will help him keep not just his name, but his vision before the voters of California,” wrote the Oracle of Cruickshank.

Our pal Steve Maviglio at from California Majority Report, stoked the issue, writing in Capitol Morning Report, that “over the weekend, there’s already been some noise in Democratic circles about possible challengers and murmurs of an Anybody-But-Jerry movement that could prevent a Brown coronation next June.”

Former Chronsman John Wildermuth and current Chron pol writer Carla Marinucci both wrote stories trying to drum up some interest in a new candidate (and a spicier story). Of course, all the names dropped into the mix – Bob Hertzberg, Jane Harman, Loretta Sanchez, Maria Shriver, John Doerr, Antonio Villaraigosa, yada yada yada – were nothing more than crapchurn.

Our friend Harold Meyerson, a very bright guy, got himself swept away worrying that a free shot for Crusty the General would be a black mark on California’s political systejm, ferchrissake.

And the ByGodLATimes and some very smart poli sci profs at USC are so hot for a contest, that when Prince Gavin dropped out of the race half-way through their six-day poll, they cooked up a wildly loaded question to prove that Democratic voters aren’t satisfied with Brown as their candidate.

As you may have heard, San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom dropped out of the race to become the Democratic candidate for governor on Friday, leaving former Governor Jerry Brown as the only major political figure seeking the Democratic nomination. Are you satisfied with Brown as the only major figure seeking the nomination or do you think it is important for Democratic voters to have additional choices in who to nominate to be the Democratic candidate for governor?

Note the “only major political figure,” followed by “only major figure” followed by “additional choices.” With the question worded that way, it’s astonishing that about a third of the Democratic primary voters said they were satisfied while only 65% said it’s important to have more choices.  Democrats always want more choices. Who’s gonna be against more choices when Jerry Brown is the ONLY major political figure seeking the nomination?

At the same time, as Dan Schnur at USC noted Sunday, it is true that Crusty the General’s favorable is about 64% among Democrats. So it’s not as if they don’t like the guy – especially the older voters who are likely to participate in the 2010 primary.

Truth is, the only person who could realistically get into the race right now would be U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein Herself. And although Former Assembly Ayatollah and SF Mayor Willie Brown is frantically pushing Difi, all good Calbuzz readers know that’s not gonna happen.

Now while Calbuzz has no horse in the race,  on either side, and though we’d dearly love a Dem horse race to write about, we do have a penetrating analytical question to ask those Democrats who want a competitive primary: “Are you out of your friggin’ minds?”

You have the ideal situation right now, tactically and strategically, and you want to screw it up? What are you – Democrats?

petewilsonConsider Exhibit A – 1990 — when U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson was begged by California Republicans to come back and run for governor because they were convinced there was nobody at home who could beat then S.F. Mayor Dianne Feinstein or Attorney General John Van de Kamp..

Wilson stepped into the breach, with no need to run a primary campaign. “It allowed us to position Pete for general election—pro-choice, anti-offshore drilling—two incredibly important symbols of moderation, AND we were able to hold our resources and our fire for DiFi in June, with an entire campaign planned from June to November,” recalled Don Sipple, Wilson’s media strategist.

“If you will recall, it was an off year with GOP controlling White House and we had to buck headwinds at the end,” Sipple remembered. “All of the advantages cited above came into play in order for Pete to squeak out a close win in a tough campaign.”

Ben Tulchin of San Francisco, our Democratic pollster pal who had been keeping a close eye on Newsom’s potential but who had no candidate in the race, agreed: “Jerry Brown needs to save as much money as he can for the general. He’s going to need it because he’s likely going to be facing a billionaire.”

It’s a no-brainer, really: Why would Brown want to be pulled to the left on gay marriage, driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants,  taxes, or whatever? Why would he want to have to kiss ass for the CCPOA, CTA or any other labor union that would extract promises in exchange for money and volunteers? Would he rather spend $10 million in a battle for the nomination or have a pile of cash on hand to go after his GOP rival the day after the election – like Wilson did to Feinstein in 1990? We’re pretty sure we know how media strategist and Brown adviser Joe Trippi would vote on that one.

As Tulchin wrote in a Chronicle op-ed: “Brown and California Democrats can now sit on the sidelines and watch the Republicans beat each other up in what will likely be a nasty and divisive primary fight between well-funded candidates who will spend millions of dollars attacking each other and leaving them in a weaker position for the general election.”

Having run statewide in California for secretary of state, governor, senator, attorney general and president, it’s not as if Brown is a newcomer in the political process. “Even more important,” Willie Brown told us, “He is not a newcomer to the thought process of government.”

But progressives like the Oracle of Cruickshank aren’t convinced. “A contested Democratic gubernatorial primary is essential to not only a strong Democratic campaign in the fall of 2010, but more importantly, to rebuilding the shattered ruins of a once-golden state,” Cruickshank wrote.

To which Jerry Brown replied the other day: “Do you know how many primaries I’ve been through?”

P.S. While the question about more choice in the Democratic primary was bogus, Calbuzz applauds the LA Times and USC for putting together the cash for a series of polls in this political season. With the demise of the LA Times Poll and the Survey and Policy Research Institute at San Jose State (which at least half of us worked on), there are too few quality public polls in California beyond the Field Poll and PPIC.  Here’s the link to the current LAT/USC effort. One note to LAT/USC: You need to clear up how your sampling was done. Your methodology story suggests it was a random sample with weighting at the back end. But on the conference call you said it was a cluster sample, which would normally obviate weighting.

Press Clips: We’re All Journalists Now (Even Willie)

Friday, November 6th, 2009

028-956Speaking of New Media: If there was any remaining doubt that everyone is a journalist in the age of new media, Willie Brown erased it once and for all during his welcoming comments at his big election day Breakfast Club event in San Francisco Tuesday.

Brown, who previously held such exalted positions as Speaker of the Assembly and Lord Mayor of San Francisco, since retiring from politics has added a lofty new title: Item-Grubbing Columnist.

Plugging his weekly Sunday Chronicle offering, which features such hoary journalistic standbys as amateur commentating on the local NFL franchises, political rumor-mongering of the highest order and exclusive interviews with cab drivers, Brown issued this shameless call to his audience of 800 potential sources: “Send me your items,” he said, “I promise I won’t check them out.”

hiltzikLAT keeps the crown: For the second week in a row, the by-God L.A. Times newsroom keeps possession of the coveted Calbuzz Little Pulitzer for Investigative Punditry. Honors this time go to business columnist Michael Hiltzik, for “Carly Fiorina’s Senate campaign an uninspiring product launch,” an elegant, superb filleting of the newly-minted political candidate. Citing Hurricane Carly’s contortions in explaining why she didn’t bother to vote in three-quarters of the state’s elections this decade, Hiltzik notes that:

Fiorina explained that this was because ‘I felt disconnected from the decisions made in Washington and, to be honest, really didn’t think my vote mattered because I didn’t have a direct line of sight from my vote to a result.’

Yet during her reign at Hewlett-Packard, according to public records, her corporation spent $4.7 million to lobby Congress and donated more than $390,000 to political candidates through its political action committee. Fiorina and her husband, Frank, a former AT&T executive, have made more than $100,000 in political donations personally since 2000.

That suggests not that Fiorina ‘felt disconnected’ from what was going on in Washington, but rather that she understood all too well that in politics, money talks. Why bother to vote when you can get what you need with greenbacks.”

carlyspeaking

Block that mid-term: iCarly’s anti-climactic formal announcement drew a fair amount of national attention, in large part because the GOP Senate primary between her and the indefatigable Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, R-Red Meat, aligns with the political meme of the moment, in which GOP establishment types are besieged by hordes of tea bagging, death paneling, grassrooting, conservative “populists.”

The narrative line achieved break-through status in the endlessly analyzed special election for New York’s 23rd congressional district, where big mouth, big ego national names like Sarah Palin and Dick Armey drove the moderate Republican nominee from the race in favor of a third party conservative candidate, managing in the process to hand the district to a Democrat for the first time in a century.

The internal feud dynamic was examined most intelligently and comprehensively over at Politico, which also reported with a straight face how bumbling Republican blowhards were shamelessly spinning that they scored a great victory by losing the seat.

The snatching-defeat-from-the-jaws-of- victory frame was deftly handled by NYT satirist Gail Collins, as Jon Stewart exceeded his own high standards, moderating a dead-on parody panel of self-important cable news political analysts chopping it over the mid-terms, which featured usual suspects Sam Bee, Aasif Mandvi and John Oliver.

matierandrossGavin, we hardly knew ye: Chronicle scoop artists Phil Matier and Andy Ross had a dandy excloo with their report that Gavin Newsom pulled his own version of a Mark Sanford, mysteriously slipping out of  town on an unplanned trip, making his own travel arrangements and not bothering to let his staff in on the details.

Unlike Sanford, the wingnut governor of South Carolina who went underground for a few days to visit his Argentine paramour, Newsom was headed for a rendezvous with his wife and child, but his conduct in the matter was erratic enough to force his flack to peddle a wheeze about Hizhonner feeling fluish when reporters asked why he skipped Willie Brown’s aforementioned bash.

Prince Gavin’s abrupt withdrawal from the gov’s race drew full Chronicler attention, including columnist Chuck Nevius’s exploration of Gavin’s psyche and Cliff Staton’s compare and contrast op-ed measuring Newsom’s stumblebum performance in his truncated campaign unfavorably against that of Dianne Feinstein, the last S.F. alcalde to run for governor.

Margin of error: Capitol Weekly, bouncing back from their last, disastrous venture in the world of polling,  published a new poll showing  Meg Whitman in a commanding position in the GOP race for governor with 37% (including leaners), compared to 15% for Tom Campbell and 6% for Steve Poizner.

While still wobbly, it’s the first survey we’ve seen by Cap Weekly’s Republican pollster, Adam Probolsky,  that  isn’t some push-poll, mash-up with whack-a-doodle numbers.

One big problem: In reporting that  “Former eBay executive Meg Whitman has opened up a wide lead in the Republican race for governor, according to the latest Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research poll,” they compared their new numbers to the most recent Field Poll (which showed Whitman 22, Campbell 20 and Poizner 9) — instead of matching the new numbers to their own previous, badly flawed, poll (which had the race Campbell 13, Whitman 10 and Poizner 8).

But you can’t do that – not unless you’ve demonstrated that your polling is in league with the Field Poll for accuracy and reliability.

That said, props to Cap Weekly for recognizing that their previous effort with Probolsky was little more than crapchurn* fodder. The new  survey still lacks adequate explanation of its methodology: it took us a bunch of emails and digging to figure out the survey was a random sample of registered voters, screened for participation, and based on a 2010 primary turnout model that projects 46% men, 54% women, 47% Democrats, 36% Republicans, 15% DTS, 69% whites, 12% Latinos and – a number we think is too low – 53% voters age 55 and older.

Whether that’s the right model for June 2010 or not, at least it’s transparent. We don’t even mind that Capitol Weekly asked a few push questions designed to see how vulnerable the candidates are to various negatives. You can read about them here.

One intriguing finding: 29% of men age 55 and older said they’d be more likely to vote for Jerry Brown knowing that at 72, he’d be California’s oldest governor ever elected, compared to 15% of men who said this would make them less likely to vote for Brown. But among women 55 and older, 19% would be more likely to vote for the geezer and 27% would be less likely.

* Crapchurn – Calbuzzspeak for the continuous stream of meaningless, speculative and/or irrelevant alleged factoids and factillae, thrust upon a long-suffering public by MSM and  online analysts alike.

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Short takes: CoCo Times columnist Dan Borenstein deserves a medal for  unrelenting perseverance in pounding away at the public employee pension story; time after time, Borenstein piles fact upon fact in exposing the distressing framework and figures of cushy pension deals in the local government jurisdictions served by his paper…Weintraub watch: Extra, Extra – NYT columnist discovers Jerry Brown! Next Sunday: A trenchant meditation on the Golden Gate Bridge…Thanks to the redoubtable George Foulsham for pointing us to “Buy One Anyway,” Slate TV’s take-off  of those soft-focus, heal-the-world TV donation pitches, with scrap heap newspaper persons the objects of maudlin charity and pity. Life in imitation of art.

A Year Out, Gov’s Race Lacks a “Change” Candidate

Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009

darwin-300x300One year before the 2010 election, Gavin Newsom’s abrupt withdrawal from the governor’s race leaves the campaign without a candidate conveying the message most aligned with California’s zeitgeist of the moment: a call for sweeping reform.

With Attorney General Jerry Brown the lone (if still formally undeclared) Democratic candidate, and a Republican field of former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, ex-Congressman Tom Campbell, and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, the race now presents two fundamental, thematic choices:

Brown and Campbell argue, in slightly different ways, that fixing California is a matter of making government work better; Whitman and Poizner essentially contend that fixing California means getting government out of the way.

At a time when Californians have record-low regard for state government, none of the four has mounted a challenge to the status quo as strongly as did Newsom. A flawed messenger lacking focus and the discipline to raise the vast sums needed, he nonetheless came closest to seizing the mantle of change.

newsomlookright“This is the race that will shake the system,” the 42-year old San Francisco mayor said in his first online campaign ad. Positioning himself as an upstart outsider with bold ideas, his message combined generational appeal with proposals for a green economy and for major structural reforms. Capturing the nomination was always a long-shot for newcomer Newsom, but it was he who most clearly articulated the memes of reform –- a constitutional convention, revising the budget process, reexamining Proposition 13 –- that have arisen amid Sacramento’s chronic gridlock and deficits.

The remaining candidates make studied efforts to cast themselves as scourges of the status quo. As authentic agents of change, however, they fall short by almost any measure. All are Baby Boomers or older, and they are also longtime establishment insiders in business, politics or both. They are campaigning on shopworn rhetoric, threadbare ideology and conventional ideas, offering scant inspiration to alienated voters and angry citizens distrustful and disgusted with the Capitol’s ossified operations.

To be sure, campaigning in the current political environment is an extraordinary challenge. The most recent statewide survey by the Public Policy Institute of California found that Californians have dismally low views of the incumbent governor – 30% approve of his performance – and of the Legislature – with its humiliating 13% approval rating.

Worse for the candidates, the citizens of California across the board are deeply pessimistic about its intractable problems: 80% say California is on the wrong track, while two-thirds expect continued bad economic times in the next year. Breaking through this widespread despair and disillusionment requires candidates with uplifting vision, powerful new ideas, exceptional personality or all three. The political platitudes now on display hardly seem to qualify.

Despite his organizational problems, Newsom as a candidate displayed high energy and thoughtful policy thinking — on health care, environmentalism and civic reform. And his courage in simply declaring same-sex marriage legal in his city triggered a national debate over the civil rights of gays. None of the rest of the field has communicated such full-throated willingness to “shake the system.”

Here’s a quick look at the messages of those who remain in the race:

Meg Whitman: With a self-referential pledge – “I refuse to let California fail” – and boasts about herwhitman “spine of steel,” Whitman tells voters that her business skills and experience as a CEO will enable her to fulfill promises of easing unemployment and fixing the state’s battered education systems. She has announced her intention of firing 40,000 state workers and slashing regulations and taxes. Arnold Schwarzenegger was the last governor to woo voters with such a singular, tough talk pitch. But his simplistic, campaign trail prescriptions proved no match for the complex political and policy maladies of the Capitol.

stevepoiznerSteve Poizner: Casting himself as a candidate of “bold ideas,” Poizner promotes a “10-10-10 program” that would cut taxes and spending each by 10% and build a $10 billion rainy-day fund. Notwithstanding his breezy confidence in the alleged transformational power of his plan, it is basically recycled supply side, unfettered market economics of a brand discredited by the Bush Administration. His political makeover, from erstwhile moderate to born-again right-winger, smacks of poll-driven politics-as-usual.

Tom Campbell: The law professor with the MBA and years of political experience campbellprofessoris almost always the smartest guy in the room. An underfunded centrist, at a time when moderates are being purged from the GOP, he campaigns as the candidate of specificity; his mastery of the minutiae of state government generates detailed white papers and avuncular assurances, but in the end his message boils down to more efficient management of the status quo.

EGBrown3Jerry Brown: It is a great paradox that the septuagenarian Brown, the original rock-star politician, now timidly labels himself “an apostle of common sense,” hardly a slogan that screams “new ideas” or invokes the insurgency of his presidential campaign days. Brown has said little about how his late-life governorship would differ from his first, except to suggest he would be more competent in balancing competing special interests, a version of the theme being sounded by Campbell.

None of these messages offers a solution to the fundamental challenge which confronts the next governor: how to slash the maddening Gordian knot of California’s governance structure.

It is instructive that Treasurer Bill Lockyer, while well-positioned to seek the governorship, shows little interest in doing so: “We’re part of a system that was designed not to work,” he recently told lawmakers studying political reform. “You are the captives of this environment, and I don’t see any way out.”

This piece is also being published today in the Los Angeles Times.



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