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Forget Fox, Univision Vote Totally Thumps Trump

Jan27

trumpracistaDonald Trump, who is demonstrating a remarkable ability to whipsaw the mainstream media, the Republican Party and the GOP presidential field, often argues that Latinos “love” him and that he’ll do great among them when actual voting begins.

Which, according to the Republican National Committee’s own analysis after the 2012 election, is vital to the future of the GOP.

But as the latest survey from the Public Policy Institute of California demonstrates – confirming other state and national polling – Latinos don’t “love” Donald Trump. In fact they loathe him.

Trump’s unfavorable rating among all Latinos in California is 84% and among Latino likely voters it’s 77%, according to PPIC’s crosstabs. Worse for Trump, his unfavorable rating among other likely voting blocs is terrible too: 71% among all likely voters, 90% among Democrats, 68% among independents, 89% among liberals, 72% among moderates, 73% among women, 68% among men and a whopping 86% among 18-34-year-olds. We could go on.

On the plus side, Trump’s favorable-to-unfavorable rating among likely Republican voters is 57-41%. But then again Sen. Ted Cruz scores better at 59-35% among likely Republican voters.

ElephantSadIn their own words Here’s what the RNC special “autopsy” study said:

If Hispanic Americans perceive that a GOP nominee or candidate does not want them in the United States (i.e. self-deportation), they will not pay attention to our next sentence. It does not matter what we say about education, jobs or the economy; if Hispanics think we do not want them here, they will close their ears to our policies. In the last election, Governor Romney received just 27 percent of the Hispanic vote. Other minority communities, including Asian and Pacific Islander Americans, also view the Party as unwelcoming. President Bush got 44 percent of the Asian vote in 2004; our presidential nominee received only 26 percent in 2012.

Regular Calbuzz readers know we have argued this point not just recently – showing how Trump has done for the national GOP what former Gov. Pete Wilson did for the California Republican Party – but for years (since our early start-up days, at least, before the billions started pouring in). Pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants is what we call a “threshold issue” for Latino voters.

Donald Trump – and the rest of the GOP field except perhaps Jeb Bush – can’t get past the threshold because their policy toward undocumented immigrants is round ‘em up and ship ‘em home.

On the other hand, he had a glove: Here’s some more bad news for the Donald: Hillary Clinton’s favorable-to-unfavorable rating among all Californians is 55-41% and Bernie Sanders’s is 46-40% — both far better than his 22-74%.

Among likely voters, Clinton’s favorable is 47-52% — slightly negative – while Sanders’s favorable among likely voters is 53-41%. Of course, Clinton has been raked over the coals for decades while Sanders has never been hit with a negative campaign (which is why he’s such a risky bet for Democrats). But among Democratic likely voters, their rankings are almost the same: 71-28% for Clinton, 71-24% for Sanders.

Among all Latinos, Clinton enjoys a 70-26% favorable and a 57-42% favorable among Latino likely voters. Sanders’s favorable among Latinos is 41-40% (a split decision) but he scores 53-35% among Latino likely voters.

No matter how you cut it, Latinos like Hillary and Bernie a lot more than they like any of the Republicans.

Interestingly, among all Democrats – whether they’re likely to vote according to PPIC’s calculations or not – Clinton’s favorable is 72-26% compared to Sanders’s 62-27%.

For a further look at how Donald Trump is alienating the Republican Party from Latinos, see this piece at Buzzfeed.

PS — If you think Trump’s numbers among Latinos are bad, you should see what blacks say. According to PPIC, Trump’s unfavorable among blacks (a very small sample) is 92%. That’s a number you seldom see in any poll.


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