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The Swami is Gone; Can We Kill the “Bradley Effect”?

Friday, June 12th, 2015

bradley_tomIn some of the tributes to our late friend and mentor Mervin Field (we name no names), the old, discredited “Bradley Effect” raised its ugly head, as writers sought to give context to Field’s most spectacular blunder as a pollster: calling the 1982 governor’s race for Tom Bradley over George Deukmejian.

As every California school child knows, Bradley, the black Democratic former mayor of Los Angeles held a slight lead over former Republican Attorney General Deukmejian in the final Field Poll before the vote for governor in November 1982.

But in the end, Deukmejian squeaked by with 49.28% of the vote compared to 48.09% for Bradley – fewer than 100,000 votes out of 7.8 millions votes cast.

George-Deukmejian“Bradley Win Projected,” cried the San Francisco Chronicle’s first edition – a bulldog run of 60,000 then shipped to some outlying, conservative counties back when newspapers were willing to lose money to build statewide circulation. This, of course, was based on Field’s confident prediction on TV on election night that Bradley would win.

Which he did. In the ballots cast in precincts on election day, upon which Field had relied for both his final survey and his election-day exit poll.

What Field had not seen was that the Republicans and especially the National Rifle Association – which had spent $5 million fighting Proposition 15, a handgun registration measure on the ballot — had racked up big early absentee votes that were already in the can but hidden from plain view. (Prop. 15 lost 63-37%.)

merv1After the election, but before it was understood what had happened, Field himself had suggested “race was a factor in the Bradley loss,” which it no doubt was. But there was no actual evidence to support what some analysts began calling the “Bradley Effect” – the false belief that voters had lied to pollsters before the election because they didn’t want to appear racist when being surveyed.

Lance Tarrance, Deukmejian’s Republican pollster, would later claim that his firm had the race much closer than the 7 points that Field had found in his final pre-election poll. But even Tarrance showed Bradley ahead 45-44% in his final tracking poll.

After Field — known among friends as “the Swami” — saw how he had failed to account for votes already cast, his polls from then on asked voters for whom they were going to vote or for whom they had already voted. And the Field Poll never made the same mistake again.

But the damn “Bradley Effect” concept refuses to die. It’s even in the Wiki on the 1982 election. It’s like a roach that refuses to be crushed underfoot.

Crunch.

A Great Man Passes: Merv Field R.I.P.

Tuesday, June 9th, 2015

mervAll you need to do to appreciate Merv Field’s legacy and lasting impact on California politics is to glance at the most recent survey his eponymous poll published about Jerry Brown, just two weeks ago.

Of course, you’ll find the latest favorable-unfavorable ratings, with cohort crosstabs, for the governor; you’ll also find, however, tracking of the same data back to 1975, the first year of Brown’s first incarnation as California’s chief executive.

There also are new measures of public opinion about the Legislature, as well as an analysis of how Californians feel about the future of the state – atop charts that show the equivalent information dating back more than 25 years.

“He was a real pioneer,” said longtime California-based media strategist Bill Carrick. “There’s nothing that compares with the durability of the Field Poll.”

Merv Field died on Monday. He was 94.

Field was an invaluable source, mentor, counselor and sounding board for your Calbuzzards during the several decades we spent working on the beat, as he was for political reporters and professionals, not just in California, but also across the nation.

pelosi“Merv is a walking encyclopedia of California political knowledge, and for nearly seven decades, the Field Poll has served as the gold standard of opinion research, information and analysis,” former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi told us a year ago, when we published a tribute to Field, in celebration of his 93rd birthday.

Mr. Punch Line. Beyond his immense professional accomplishments, colleagues and the cognoscenti also knew the informal side of Merv: a fan of stand-up comedy, schtick, zingers, corny puns and brisk one-liners, his  performances as the Swami, at “The Party’s Not Over,” a hacks and flacks dinner he hosted for years at Bimbo’s nightclub in San Francisco, were iconic set pieces.

In his semi-retirement, he also conscientiously wrote an items column for The Ark, a Marin County weekly. His pieces arrived via email, every Sunday night, like clockwork. We’ve been saving them since 2009, sometimes stealing mining material for public appearances from his offerings, which offered a quirky combination of bad jokes, funny koans and statistical oddities he discovered in his reading, a weekly insight into the droll and entertaining mind of Merv. A sampling:

Researchers in Sweden found that children whose parents washed dishes by hand are more likely to be exposed to bacterial microbes, making them less likely to suffer from allergies than children who grew up with dishwashers.

Our country is trillions of dollars in debt, and the number increases every day.  Which denomination comes after a trillion? A Vanity Fair nationwide survey found only 40% of all Americans knew it was Quadrillion.  The other answers:  Gazillion (12%), Bazillion (7%), Quintillion (4%), Decillion (1%) and 36% don¹t know.

Siegfried Meinstein, a 94-year-old World War II veteran, has been unable to file his tax return because the IRS insists that he is dead. Despite his repeated attempts to prove that he¹s alive, Meinstein has received three letters from the IRS insisting he¹s “deceased.” Meinstein said that his son told him not to let the IRS upset him, noting philosophically, “Eventually, they¹ll be right.”

Ba-da-bum: “Graffiti in ladies rest room:  ‘Better to have loved and lost than to have spent your whole damn life with him,’” he once reported. “Where are the Virgin Islands?  Far from the Isle of Man,” he wrote in another. “Can placebos cause side effects?  If so, are the side effects real?” Ba-da-bing.

mervin_field-210x300Thoughtful and civil, cordial and cultured, affable and warm, Merv Field was, quite simply a great man. An erudite guru of California’s historic trends and campaign minutiae, he always had time to help journalists, from cubs to wizened veterans, navigate the political landscape, or just to gossip like the political junkie he was, through and through.

John Myers did a nice job on Merv’s obit, while Mark DiCamillo, the late Mr. Field’s longtime protégé and partner, put out the most comprehensive recounting of his life, written by lifelong Merv friend Jerry Lubenow.

 

Here we republish the Calbuzz homage, published March 10, 2014, and headlined “Merv Field at 93: A Tribute to California’s “Swami.”

Mervin Field, a pioneer in using non-partisan public opinion research to analyze and interpret politics, will be feted, honored and gushed over by friends, colleagues and neighbors on his Marin County hometown turf tonight.

On the eve of Field’s 93rd birthday, we enthusiastically join the Town of Tiburon — which is to host a community celebration of his life and work in its council chambers this evening — in lauding Merv and the 67 years during which nearly 2,500 Field Poll reports have helped explain the Golden State to its citizens and to the nation.

jerrynew1“In my lifetime,” Governor Jerry Brown told Calbuzz, “the use of political polls has dramatically increased. This sea change – to no small degree – has been due to the work of Merv Field. As a longtime consumer of these polls, I salute Merv and his dedicated life of service to California.”

House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said in an email that, “Merv Field’s name and work are synonymous with civic engagement and public opinion in the state of California.

“Merv is a walking encyclopedia of California political knowledge, and for nearly seven decades, the Field Poll has served as the gold standard of opinion research, information, and analysis,” Pelosi added.

For many years, Field has been not only a go-to source, but also a counselor, mentor and sounding board for both the vast, far-flung Calbuzz editorial team, and for public affairs reporters and political professionals throughout the state.

He is known to insiders as “The Swami,” a nickname bestowed when he performed as a turban-topped soothsayer at “The Party’s Not Over,” an annual hacks and flacks bash, led by a “semi-steering committee” (whose membership included Field and Pelosi, among others) which had a long run during the 1980s and ‘90s at Bimbo’s in San Francisco.

galekaufmann“I clearly remember the first time I met the man who to me was a superstar,” recalled now-superstar Democratic consultant Gale Kaufman. “It was one of the political dinners at Bimbo’s and he was just so charming, funny and smart. He didn’t know me from a hole in the wall and yet he and I had a thoughtful intense conversation. His analysis of California issues has always been a cut above. He was always willing to talk to those of us coming up in the profession, to answer questions and share insights.”

Field meets Gallup: Field’s passion for polling political, policy and marketing issues began in 1937, when he got the chance during high school to meet George Gallup, America’s vanguard pollster, who had started his company two years before.

Field began in the profession when survey takers went door-to-door with clipboards and results were hand-tabulated. Establishing genuine random samples was a challenge until the telephone became ubiquitous. By the 1970s, it became easier for pollsters to create random samples of the population, whose opinions could represent the views of the whole population in much the same way a blood sample tells physicians what’s going on in the body without testing all of a person’s blood.

Field was a pioneer in scientific polling using the telephone and, in the 21st Century, with Mark DiCamillo directing survey operations, has overseen his firm’s transition to the use of voter lists and cell phones as a means of fully reaching the voting population. While most of the Field Institute’s income is derived from complex polling for governments, civic groups, corporations and educational institutions, its timely political surveys are what catches public attention.

All of which has helped make polling – and especially the Field Poll – ever more popular and influential.

trippi“When Merv Field’s polls differed from our campaign polls I always believed his,” said Democratic consultant Joe Trippi, who helped Brown return to the governor’s office in 2010. “He was that good. For a pioneer who measured the ups and downs of campaigns and issues, Merv Field rose to the top and stayed there — a giant.”

From button-down to bedlam:  For many years, California political reporters were pestered and harassed by campaign operatives (and, in big races, by East Coast colleagues) to disclose the dates and times when the Field Poll would be released.

It was closely held information known only to news organizations that paid for subscriptions to the poll — because of its influence in informing and influencing the pre-election opinions of voters.

Field’s once-singular position in the marketplace, however, today has been lost to the nihilistic bedlam of countless polls pushed out non-stop by news outlets, campaigns and cheap, quick-buck artists. Polling pandemonium now blares and echoes across the 24/7 cable and internet news cycles, broadcast, published and ignorantly discussed without regard to quality, methodology or statistical validity, amid the second-by-second eyeballs race to be first, new and buzzworthy.

(Which makes our blood boil).

The down side: Not only do news organizations often mischaracterize poll findings, frequently lending significance to differences that are within the margin of error, but they often use polling as a substitute for more serious reporting of candidates’ stands on issues, their backgrounds, the veracity of their arguments and the quality of their campaigns. Instead of examining these kinds of issues, some news organizations rely almost entirely on horse race reporting of candidates’ standings.

This, according to many in the political world, has not been an improvement in political coverage. And while he remains perhaps the most influential pollster in California (the free-to-all Public Policy Institute of California polls overseen by Mark Baldassare, and the USC/Los Angeles Times poll also have substantial weight and reach), Field comes in for his share of criticism for the current state of affairs.

“Merv’s impact on California politics has been profound, but not all for the better,” Republican consultant Ray McNally told us. “Unquestionably, his polling has brought insight and excitement to political contests. But it has also been a major driver behind how the media cover campaigns, changing the focus from issues and substance to campaign mechanics in which the breaking news is who’s ahead.

“Instead of debates, we have horse races and bolstered mediocre ones based solely on name ID, often months before the race begins. And that’s not healthy for democracy.”

mark d“The Field Poll opened the door for every other California public poll to exist and for private polling to emulate — so many polls, such different methods and so much hype,” noted Kaufman. “(But) Merv is a class act whose love for politics, accuracy and professional ethics I believe we all respect.”

Bottom line. From Leader Pelosi: “Californians understand our state, our communities, and our political issues and leadership better thanks to Merv Field.”

More Field Notes Five things you may not know about Merv Field:

1-He played football with Albert Einstein. Sort of. During the Depression, he caddied at a golf course in Princeton, New Jersey, where he and his colleagues sometimes played touch football. As Princeton professor Einstein walked by one day, the ball sailed over Merv’s head; the great man returned it to Field with a soccer-style kick.

2-He cheated death in the Merchant Marine. Merv served three years on transport ships during World War II and survived Nazi U-boat attacks, as well as collisions at sea. When he was off-duty, such incidents annoyingly interrupted his off-duty hours reading about survey research.

3-He is a Herb Caen-style three-dot columnist. For years Merv has written “Merv Field’s File,” an items column for The Ark, a paid subscription weekly paper serving Tiburon, Belvedere, Strawberry and East Corte Madera. Quick sample: “Sometimes I lie awake at night, and I ask, ‘Where have I gone wrong?’  Then a voice says to me, ‘this is going to take more than one night.’” Ba-dum-dum.

4-He has a close connection with Lawrence Welk. Merv was born on March 11, 1921, the same day as the great American mathematician Frank Harary, who helped invent graph theory. He also shares a birthday with Shemp Howard, Rupert Murdoch and the iconic late bandleader and accordionist Lawrence “Wun’erful Wun’erful” Welk.

field5-He’s one of the top 30 of the 20th.  In its last pre-millennium issue, the late, lamented California Journal listed the 30 people who most influenced California government and politics in the 20th Century, including Merv: Over the past half century, Field and his poll have defined California politics…In the national media, the myth grew that if you want to see America tomorrow, look at California today. And Field became the lens through which most of the nation viewed California.

That’s -30-

 

Paris Is Talking: Ro vs. Ho, the Rematch

Monday, June 8th, 2015

eiffeltower_night_bluelilyPARIS –Here in the City of Light, where authorities keep busy rounding up immigrants and removing lovers’ locks from the Pont des Arts, traffic came to a screeching halt on the Champs Élysées when word came that Rho Khanna is re-challenging Mike Honda for Silicon Valley’s 17th District seat in the U.S. Congress.

“Mon Dieu!” cried Pierre LaPeu, smacking his head with a force that drove his chapeaux into la gouttiere.

“Enfin, nous avons de l’espoir dans la Vallée de Silicium!”

Paris, where there appear to more smart phones per capita than anywhere on the globe, is quivering with anticipation that the center of innovation half a world away might wind up with someone in Congress who is, how do you say, “awake.” Tres eveille!

At Sennielier, the 128-year-old art store on Quai Voltaire where impressionists have bought custom paints, canvas and brushes for generations, Khanna vs. Honda is all the talk. “Your Mike Honda is almost as old as Charles de Gaulle, n’est-ce pas?” asked one patron, a Gauloises dangling from his lip.

art storeKhanna’s All-Stars. The Calbuzz International Wine Sampling and Croissant Munching Desk reached out via email to consultant Joe Trippi and pollster Paul Maslin, newly signed on for Khanna, for an assessment of their chances. Trippi, the former night clerk at the fleabag Vendome Hotel in downtown San Jose, who later virtually invented online campaign tactics in the U.S., apparently exhausted himself telling Josh Richman of the Bay Area News Group:

This is a place I consider home, and I’ve always been someone who thinks we need fresh thinking and new blood in the Democratic Party — and in Washington in particular — considering the challenges we’re facing.

Maslin, one of the most sensible partisan pollsters in American politics (well, except for that stint for Ross Perot; we digress), offered:

The substantial increase in turnout that a presidential year will invariably produce should work to the benefit of a candidate such as Ro Khanna. These mostly younger voters with weaker partisan affiliation simply want results– and if that means a break from an incumbent and instead embracing a younger challenger– so be it.

khannahondaThe early line. Khanna, 38, will face an uphill battle again, against Honda, who is 73 and backed to the hilt by Establishment Democrats and Big Labor.

In their last head-to-head, Honda won by 3.6 percent, after labor loyalists declared Khanna the tool of billionaires and selfish Silicon Valley interests.

As Calbuzz spelled out then, Khanna is actually a progressive, enviro-Democrat who diverges from party orthodoxy on some economic issues that put him at odds with down-the-line labor Democrats.

Here, in the Parisian Latin Quarter, all Americans — whether Indo- or Japanese- — all look pretty much the same. What matters is whether they can stay up late enough for dinner at 10 p.m.

Which Khanna can.