Voters gave the back of their hand to public employees unions from San Diego and San Jose to Green Bay and Eau Claire. But before left-wingers in California start slitting their wrists and right-wingers here start their victory dance, let’s remember the important point about the state’s historic low turnout: it was a much more conservative electorate than we’ll see in November.
In California, for example, Barack Obama drew about 1.6 million votes while Mitt Romney and the rest of the Republicans combined drew about 1.4 million – Obama over the GOP field 51-47% or about +4% for Obama.
But surveys by the Field Poll, USC/LA Times and the best private pollsters predict Obama will beat Romney in California by anywhere from 15 to 20 percentage points in the general election. In other words, while we won’t have actual data from the Secretary of State for a couple of months, it’s clear that the California electorate on Tuesday was NOT the same electorate we can expect in November.
“This is just a nasty universe,” said Democratic pollster Jim Moore, who will be explaining the same to Gov. Jerry Brown as he looks forward to a tax-hike measure in November.
Likewise, in Wisconsin, where Republican Gov. Scott Walker narrowly survived a recall 53-46%, Obama was leading Romney 51-44%, according to the exit poll conducted by Edison Research. Six in 10 Wisconsin voters said a recall was appropriate only in cases of “official misconduct,” and a substantial number of Walker voters said they intend to vote for Obama for president.
These and other factors figure into one of the best analyses of the vote we’ve seen by Clifford Young of Ipsos Public Affairs Polling in a piece titled “Wisconsin is all noise: Obama will still win in November.”
As always, bloviating ignorami in the MSM, are over-interpreting Wisconsin and California election results. Yes, voters have had it up to here with public employee pension programs that seem to them overindulgent and budget-busting. But it is folly to leap from that to suggest that we are on the verge of a great rightward electoral wave.
No anti-tax tidal wave: No matter what happens on Prop. 29, the $1-per-pack tobacco tax (which was losing by a wispy 1.6% before about a million late absentees were counted), by and large, local tax and bond measures fared decently.
As the inexhaustible Michael Coleman noted at Californiacityfinance.com:
Preliminary election night tallies with all precincts reporting, indicate that 55 of the 87 local revenue measures passed. As in past elections, majority vote measures fared better than supermajority vote special taxes and bonds.
Fifteen of the 19 majority vote measures passed, including all but one of the city measures. But 18 of the 34 two-thirds supermajority vote special taxes passed. School parcel taxes fared better, with nine of 13 passing versus just nine of 21 non-school special tax measures passing.
The overall passage rate of non-school local tax measures in June 2012 was similar to prior elections over the last decade. Over that time, voters have approved 66% of majority vote measures but only 45% of two-thirds vote special tax measures.
Top two still being tested: It’s too soon to tell the impact of the top-two primary system but if you want the best snap aggregation, you gotta check out Scott Lay’s Around The Capitol. The king of aggregation – and our first stop in the morning – is, of course, Jack Kavanagh’s Rough and Tumble. But for political junkies who want gory data details right now, Lay (and his Nooner) are indispensible, to wit:
– CD02: Jared Huffman clocks the Dem field and gets a walk in November against Rep Dan Roberts
– John Garamendi pulls in 47,258 votes to Kim Vann’s 22,336, likely dropping CD03 from the NRCC’s November target list
– In CD15, Pete Stark has to be sweating, with 39,000 votes for opponents against his 28,000. Eric Swalwell advances.
– Democrats can’t be happy in CD21, where David Valadao exceeded the combined vote of John Hernandez and Blong Xiong by 5,000 votes. Hernandez advances.
– In CD24, Republicans pulled over 64,000 votes to Lois Capps’s 58,298. Abel Maldonado survives to November
– CD26: Tony Strickland 44.2%, Julia Brownley 26.8% and Linda Parks 18.5%. Aside from turnout difference, Brownley needs to capture ALL of Parks’s vote to win in November.
– CD30: Two Jews, One District continues in November. Sherman outpolls Berman by 7,500 votes
– DISASTER: Democrats lost a huge opportunity in CD31, with Republicans Gary Miller and Bob Dutton advancing to the runoff. Justin Kim pulled more than 7,000 votes from Pete Aguilar, pushing one of the few DCCC stars this cycle to third.
– CD47: Lowenthal v. DeLong
– That IE in CD51 by the Paskenta tribe paid off–Michael Crimmins came in second, knocking out Denise Ducheny, and giving Juan Vargas a clear path in November.
– In CD52, Scott Peters has second place by a thread, up 700 votes on Lori Saldana.
Heartbroken: That’s what we were when our favorite whackjob dentist birther, Orly the Taitz, with about 114,000 votes, didn’t make the runoff as the Republican challenger to U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein.
Not that we have anything against the energetic Elizabeth Emken, the GOP anointed candidate who pulled about 455,00 votes compared to DiFi’s 1.8 million. But the Lizard is really just a nice, responsible, well-spoken Republican. We can’t imagine Dianne will even bother debating her.
But DiFi versus Orly – now that would have been the hottest ticket since the Thrilla in Manilla.