As Calbuzz predicted and warned, self-anointed school savior Molly Munger (with an assist from her right-wing brother Charles Jr. and the underhanded Joel Fox), has driven Gov. Jerry Brown’s Prop. 30, a measure to bolster the state budget and prevent draconian cuts to the schools, below 50% in the polls.
While it clung to a narrow majority for months, Prop. 30 – after being attacked on TV –has fallen to 48-44% in the latest survey from the Public Policy Institute of California, down from 52-40% last month in the same poll.
Of course, heiress Munger’s own Prop. 38 tax hike for schools, which never had a chance, has also fallen to 39-53%, from 45-45% a month ago. Just as we predicted.
Brown’s Prop. 30 would fund schools by increasing taxes on earnings over $250,000 for seven years and the sales tax by ¼ cent for four years, and would also guarantee public safety realignment funding.
Part of the measure – the tax-the-rich feature – offers its only chance for survival. According to PPIC, of all the tax proposals on the table right now, Prop. 30 contains the most popular feature: “raising the top rate of the state income tax paid by the wealthiest Californians.”
About two-thirds of likely voters – 64% — favor that idea, compared to 59% who support raising corporate taxes (a feature of Prop. 39).
Munger’s Prop. 38 relies on the least favored mechanism – raising the personal income tax across the board – which has support of just 25% of likely voters.
One problem for Brown is that his measure includes a teensy temporary sales tax hike and only 28% of voters like the idea of raising sales taxes.
But with widespread support for soaking the rich – 87% of Democrats, 59% of independents and even 33% of Republicans – Brown has only one option if he wants to get his measure back up over 50%: class warfare.
He should argue on TV that his measure will force the rich to pay their fair share, which is why the phony Small Business Action Committee – funded by secret donations from greedy billionaires who have no interest in California’s school kids – is trying to kill Prop. 30.
Our friend Dan Morain at the Sacramento B- lays out the case against the loathsome secrecy about the source of funds to Joel Fox’s so-called Small Business Action Committee.
“It’s complete money laundering,” Brown said last weekend. The governor should continue to hammer at this. Too bad there’s no time to call Fox and his contributors before a Legislative investigative committee. We’d sure like to know how much he makes off all this in commissions, referrals or ancillary business. Maybe the FPPC’s Ann Ravel can compel disclosure through the courts.
The LA Times and USC will be coming out with polling data Thursday and we suspect they’ll show the same thing PPIC found — that Prop. 38 is still sinking but now is pulling Prop. 30 under water, too.
How Molly Munger can live with herself — after virtually every independent political analyst in California advised her that she would crush school finances by going ahead with her self-indulgent ballot measure – we have no bloody idea.
Other PPIC results of note:
— Twenty-four percent of likely voters would vote yes on Prop. 31 (changes to the state budget process and state and local government), 48% would vote no, and 28% are unsure.
— Four in 10 likely voters (39%) favor Prop. 32 (prohibiting political contributions by payroll deduction), while 53% would vote no.
— Barack Obama and Joe Biden lead Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan 53-41% in the presidential race. Six in 10 likely voters are more enthusiastic than usual about voting in the November election. Among Latino likely voters, it’s Obama over Romney by a staggering 52 points: 74-22%.
— Likely voters have a positive view of the Democratic Party 53-44% and they have an even stronger negative view of the Republican Party 38-58%. Likely voters also have a highly negative opinion of the Tea Party movement — 32-56%
— Latino likely voters have a 68-28% favorable view of the Democratic Party and a scathing 32-62% unfavorable view of the Republican Party.
PPIC surveyed 2,006 California adult residents on landlines and cell phones Oct. 14-21. The survey identified 993 likely voters. The margin of error for all adults is ±3.2% and for likely voters it is ±4.0 percent.