Gov. Jerry Brown’s main worry about winning approval of his ballot measure to raise taxes to help fund schools and reduce the state’s deficit is “funded opposition.” If there’s no serious “anti-“ effort, he and his small clutch of advisers believe their Proposition 30 has a fighting chance.
Looking at the results of the latest surveys from the Public Policy Institute of California and the Field Poll, it’s easy to see why they’re nervous, however.
According to PPIC, Prop. 30 is ahead 52-40% — with big support among Democrats (73%) but just a narrow lead among independents (53%) and hearty opposition (65% against) among Republicans.
According to Field, Prop. 30 leads 51-36%, with 66% among Democrats, 58% among those with no party preference and 62% of Republicans opposed. (Field surveys a random sample of actual registered voters; PPIC asks a random sample of people to state their party registration.)
Good golly Ms. Molly: It wouldn’t take a lot to drive Brown’s measure under. Of course, Molly Munger’s Proposition 38, is on even shakier ground, with likely voters evenly split 45-45%, according to PPIC. That includes 61% among Democrats, 53% of independents and with 68% of Republicans opposed. According to Field, Munger’s measure is doing even worse, trailing 41-44%, including just 54% of Democrats, 45% of decline-to-states and 21% of Republicans.
No matter what blue sky scenario some avaricious consultants pitch to her, Munger can’t win by attacking Brown’s measure. But she could take his out and, in the process, kill her own measure as well.
And if Joel Fox and his so-called “Small Business Action Committee” – with $4 million in funding from Charles T. “Munger the Younger” Munger of Palo Alto (Molly’s conservative brother) – decides to go after Prop. 30, he can probably kill it. But he’ll likely take out Molly’s Prop. 38 as well (Chares Munger, Sr. is Warren Buffett’s business partner).
On the other hand, If Fox uses that $4 million in conjunction with the $4 million scooped up by the California Future Fund for Free markets from the infamous Koch Brothers, in favor of Prop. 32 – which seeks to kill political spending from union payroll deductions – they might have a chance in getting Prop. 32 approved.
What is Fox’s secret plan? But that’s an uphill battle, according to PPIC, which find likely voters opposing the measure 49-42%, with 61% of Democrats opposed but 53% of Republicans and 52% of independents in favor.
BTW: We asked Fox by email to tell us what he plans to spend all that money on and he refused to discuss it.
The margin of error for likely voters in the PPIC survey is 4.4%. You can find PPIC’s new survey here. The Field Poll results, with a 3.4% margin of error among likely voters, were obtain from a source with access.