If California Republicans are a good measure – and they’re a huge and diverse sample – Texas Gov. Rick Perry has stuck a fork in Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann: she’s done.
That’s one clear message of the numbers in the latest USC-LA Times poll. Here’s another: President Barack Obama, despite all his troubles, remains poised to cream any of the existing GOP candidates in the state.
Another take-away: Democrats are fed up with Obama’s practice of appeasement. Six in 10 want him “stand up to Republicans more and fight for my priorities” compared to 33% who say he should “compromise more with Republicans to solve problems.”
In fact, as for compromise, it appears everyone is for it, unless it means they have to compromise. By 57-32% Democrats don’t want any cuts in Social Security or Medicare and by 50-35% Republicans don’t want any revenue increases. This is the stuff of gridlock.
Oh, and in case you thought otherwise – from the massive media coverage these goons have been getting – the so-called Tea Party movement is pretty damn unpopular in California: 48% unfavorable to 28% favorable. Only Republicans have a favorable view of these guys: 59-20%. Among Democrats it’s 66-9% unfavorable and among registered independents it’s 52-20% negative.
These are just some of the findings in the latest survey of 1,408 California registered voters by the Republican firm American Viewpoint and the Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the USC Dornsife College of Letters and Los Angeles Times. The survey was conducted Aug. 27-28 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5% for the overall sample.
In the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Perry has eclipsed Bachmann in large measure by stealing away the Tea Party Republicans. Perry and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney are tied among Republican primary voters overall at 22% each, with U.S. Rep. Ron Paul trailing at 11% and Bachmann at 10%. But among Tea Party supporters, Perry wins 33%, Romney has 23% and Bachmann just 11%.
It’s too early to tell whether Perry can expand his popularity among the general Republican electorate in California – only 54% of the registered Republicans could identify him compared to 79% for Romney.
On the other hand, among those with an opinion, Romney’s favorable-to-unfavorable rating among Republicans is 57-19%, compared to 41-8% for Perry and 46-21% for Bachmann.
Compared to Obama, they’re all bad cheese. The president’s overall fav/unfav in California is 58-27% positive, including 82-16% among Democrats and 64-33% among registered independents and 75-23% negative among Republicans.
But Romney’s overall fav/unfav is 37-32% unfavorable, including 49-18% negative among Democrats and 39-23% negative among independents.
Perry’s overall is 31-20% unfavorable, including 45-8% negative among Democrats and 35-10% negative among independents.
And Bachmann’s overall is 40-25% unfavorable, including 53-12% negative among Democrats and 44-17% negative among independents.
And while Obama’s favorability is 64-33% among moderates, Romney’s is 38-29% unfavorable, Perry’s is 36-12% unfav and Bachmann’s is 46-17% negative.
Sympathy for the Tea Party has emerged as a powerful demographic measure: Obama’s favorable among those who do not support the movement is 71-27% positive and among those who do support the TP it’s 74-25% negative. Fortunately for Obama, Tea Party supporters comprise just 27% of the registered voters while 73% say they are not supporters.
Which is part of the reason why no Republican in the field has a chance – at this point – against Obama. In fact, while Obama beats a generic Republican candidate 52-37%, in head-to-head match-ups he beats Romney 54-35%, Perry 56-32% and Bachmann 57-31%.
While Republicans and Democrats support their party’s nominee, independents break for Obama 59-26% against Romney, 61-22% against both Perry and Bachmann. Likewise moderates: they go for Obama 62-28% against Romney, 64-24% against Perry and 67-22% against Bachmann.
For more on the survey, check out Cathy Decker’s excellent summary at the LA Times. There were 500 pages of crosstabs released Sunday night, so Calbuzz will come back to them when we’re not getting ready to slap some meat on the grill.