Which brings us back to Mike Murphy, the master sloganeer and puppet master.

It is amazing that press coverage summarizing this failed governorship (and even the Governor’s wiki page) rarely mention 2004’s Propositions 57 and 58 — though Schwarzenegger’s decision to put them on the ballot and then personally sell them to Californians set the stage for the remainder of his tenure.

It’s hard to say that every bad thing that has happened to Schwarzenegger was caused by Props 57 and 58, though many were, but what is clear is that the lost opportunity of this Governorship, the forfeiture of his political base and his popular support, the squandering of his mandate for change, and (taken with the car tax repeal) the origins of our ever-worsening budget nightmare, all have their roots in Schwarzenegger’s 2004 initiatives.

Having taken office less than four months before the 2004 election, after a high-energy, big-promises recall campaign, the public was desperate for serious reform in Sacramento. Schwarzenegger connected with the people in a way that gave him virtual carte blanche to rewrite the rules in Sacramento. He could have put anything on the ballot in 2004 — even a new state constitution — and it probably have passed. No one had the street credibility to stop him.

So what did he do? Against the stern warnings of highly respected Legislative Analyst Liz Hill and many economists, he issued long term bonds to buy his way out of short term debt, and sold a fraudulent “Balanced Budget Act” that had the strength of Swiss cheese. Remember his money line, “we’re going to tear up the credit cards in Sacramento?”

Arnold was betting on the come that the economy was already turning around and business as usual in the capitol would be easier than the overhaul he had promised the voters. The man who values popularity above principle was now more interested in being loved by the state lawmakers populating his smoking tent than the frustrated electorate who sent him to Sacramento.

By the time Schwarzenegger was ready to attempt some modest-but-actual reform measures in 2005, the public had his number. Like jilted lovers, they came to the polls with clenched fists aiming for the jaw of the man who had promised change but delivered more of the same: fiscal mismanagement, broken promises and political pandering.

If you ever want to see what political suicide looks like, watch this Schwarzenegger speech (audio starts after 30 secs): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0WxdBAJIxI.

None of us can really know what role Mike Murphy or any other adviser played in the 2005 special election debacle, but that election wasn’t just a case of “too little, too late,” for the voters it was really a case of “here he goes again.” The die was cast one year earlier.

Imagine if Schwarzenegger had believed his own recall rhetoric and delivered a significant set of reforms in March 2004. What a different state we might be living in today.